Fossil Fuels - Agenda

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 4 χρόνια και 1 μήνα)

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Fossil Fuels
-

Agenda


What is Petroleum


Where do we find it


How do we use it


Role of Technology


Pricing & Forecasting


Do we have enough / Peak Oil


Hydrocarbon Opportunities for the Future

AAPG
-

Tinker

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What is Petroleum?

What is Petroleum?



Petroleum: naturally occurring solid, liquid or

gaseous hydrocarbons



Hydrocarbon:

an organic compound made up


of carbon and hydrogen atoms



Petroleum System Processes

24803
Petroleum System Elements
Petroleum System Elements
120° F
120° F
350° F
350° F
Generation
Generation
Migration
Migration
Seal Rock
Seal Rock
Reservoir

Rock
Reservoir

Rock
Oil
Oil
W
ater
W
ater
Gas

Cap
Gas

Cap
Entrapment
Entrapment
Accumulation

Source
Rock

It is
ALL
or nothing

Petroleum System Elements



Source Rock

-

A rock with abundant hydrocarbon
-
prone
organic matter (kerogen)



Reservoir Rock

-

A rock in which oil and gas

accumulates:




-

Porosity: space between rock grains in which oil




accumulates







-

Permeability: passage
-
ways between pores




through which oil and gas moves



Seal Rock

-

A rock through which oil and gas cannot

move

effectively (such as mudstone and claystone)



Migration Route

-

Avenues in rock through which oil
and

gas moves from source rock to trap



Trap

-

The structural and stratigraphic configuration that

focuses oil and gas into an accumulation

It is
ALL
or nothing

Kerogen Types

TOC = 2.12 WT.%

TOC = .38 WT.%

Source Rock for Petroleum

Organic
-
Rich

Thin
Laminae

Measured
Values

3.39

378

Total
Organic
Carbon

LOMPOC Quarry Sample

Monterey Formation, CA

Hydrogen

Index

1 Inch

What kind of kerogen do you expect?

Kerogen


Source & Maturation

Van Krevelen diagram showing maturation pathways for Types 1 to IV kerogens as traced by
changes in atomic HIC and OIC ratios. The shaded areas approximately represent diagenesis,
catagenesis, and metagenesis, successively.

http://www.geo.vu.nl/~rondeel/grondstof/oil/oil
-
total.pdf

Making Oil/Gas
-

It is all about

Hydrogen!


Best source material is:


Algal (Lacustrine/Marine), then


Spores/Pollen (lipid), then


Cellulose (woody material)

Thermal Maturation History

Diagenesis

R
o

= 0.5%

R
o

= 2.0%

Catagenesis

Metagenesis

K
4

K
3

K
2

K
1

K

K

Oil Phase
-
Out

Oil

Gas

Oil

Gas

Oil

Gas

Cond

Gas

Gas

Less Hydrogen

More Hydrogen

Kerogen

Onset of Oil Generation

Horsfield and Rullkotter, 1994

Burial to
Greater
and
Hotter
Depths

Types of Petroleum

Oil and gas are formed by the thermal
cracking of organic compounds buried
in fine
-
grained rocks.

Algae = Hydrogen rich = Oil
-
prone





Wood = Hydrogen poor = Gas
-
prone

Does this information help you decide

which biomass may be better for fuels?

Largest Hydrocarbon Basins


by Ultimate Potential

5 of top 10

US Fields in

California

(>1 BBL)

Global Exploration

Global Oil and Gas Fields

Gas

Oil

AAPG Web slides

History of Petroleum

First Use:

First
Drilling:

First
Product:

Demand
Increase:

AAPG Web slides

History of Petroleum

First Use:



Egyptians: oil to preserve mummies



Chinese: natural gas for fuel



Babylonians: oil to seal walls and pave
streets



Americans: tar to seal bowls, canoes*

First
Drilling:



Chinese using bamboo: to 800’ in 347 AD



Americans* using cable tool: to 70’ in
1859 AD

First
Product:



Kerosene for lamps



Gasoline was unwanted by
-
product

Demand
Increase:



Industrial Revolution



-

Internal Combustion Engine (1885)



-

Global Economic Growth

AAPG Web slides

Energy Usage: 1750
-
2000

An Energy Dependent Society

Steam

Steam

locomotive

Power

stations

Internal combustion engine

Air

travel

Population

growth

Living

standards

Global

markets

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

H
y
d
r
o
c
a
r
b
o
n
s




N
u
c
l
e
a
r
Telecommunications

WWI

WWII

Satellite

Environmental issues

Micro
-
processor

Internet

Energy Usage

?

Modifiers

Drivers

Cook and Sheath, 1997

Petroleum Products

Gasoline
-

19.5 gallons

A Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:

Fuel Oil
-

9.2 gallons

Jet Fuel
-

4.1 gallons

Asphalt
-

2.3 gallons

Kerosene
-

0.2 gallons

Lubricants
-

0.5 gallons

Petrochemicals,

other products
-

6.2 gallons

One Barrel =


42 gallons

American Petroleum Institute,
1999

Petroleum Industry Tech Breakthroughs

1883


1900’s


1914


1924


1930’s


1960’s


1970’s


1980’s


1990’s

Anticlinal Theory


Rotary Drilling


Seismograph


Well Logging


Offshore Drilling


Digital Computer


Directional
Drilling


3D Seismic


3D Simulation

Basin and Reservoir

Concept of ‘Where
-
to
-
Drill’


Drill deeper


1D Subsurface imaging


Subsurface rock and fluid
properties


Access to new areas and basins

Access to areas with surface
obstacles


More precise subsurface imaging


Predicting fluid movement

2D Subsurface imaging &
data management

JMA

The Importance of

Developing Technologies


New opportunities, some in old places


Sub
-
salt, sub
-
volcanic imaging


Deep water sequence stratigraphy


Imaging of deep structure


Technology leads to efficiency and
profitability, even at $15/bbl


Emphasis upon computer technology and
skills


Infusion of new ideas into the workforce

50 Years of Thermal Experience at Work

Kern River Field, California


Steamflood


85,000 bopd


300,000 bbl steam/day


9,000 wells


Recovery will approach 80%

Production (BOPD)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

Steamflood

Primary

Field


discovered

Primary

production

Bottom hole

heaters

Steam

flood

Cogen

HWells

USA Average Wellhead Oil Price

Oil Price (1996 Dollars/Barrel)

U.S. Department of Energy, 1996

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

$/Barrel

1990 Gulf War

1956 Suez Crisis

1967 Arab
-
Israeli War

1973 Arab Oil Embargo

1978 Iranian Revolution

1980 Iran/Iraq War

Regular Gas Price

024583
Regular Gas Price

1920-82 Leaded, 1982-94 Unleaded
Regular Gas Price

1920-82 Leaded, 1982-94 Unleaded
1.50
1.50
1.20
1.20
0.90
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.30
0.30
1920
1920
1940
1940
1960
1960
1980
1980
Do
l
lars

per

Gallon
Do
l
lars

per

Gallon
Current Dollars
Current Dollars
Constant (1982-84) Dollars
Constant (1982-84) Dollars
1930
1930
1950
1950
1970
1970
1990
1990
1920
-
82 Leaded, 1982
-
94 Unleaded

American Petroleum Institute, 1999

Gasoline Price: Cost vs. Tax

Per Gallon Unleaded Self
-
Service in 1998 Dollars

San Francisco, CA

San Diego, CA

Portland, OR

Boston, MA

Seattle, WA

Washington, DC

Atlanta, GA

Dallas, TX

Denver, CO

Kansas City, MO

Tulsa, OK

City

Pump Price

July ‘98

Jan. ‘99

Tax

Product

1.45

1.49

1.35

1.18

1.31

1.24

.93

1.08

1.18

.96

.97

1.25

1.18

1.15

1.13

1.10

1.08

.98

.95

.94

.86

.81

.46

.46

.42

.40

.41

.38

.30

.38

.40

.35

.35

.78

.71

.73

.73

.68

.70

.67

.57

.53

.51

.45

Oil and Gas Journal, January 18, 1999

Gasoline Price: Cost vs. Tax

UK
1

Italy
1

France
1

Germany
1

Japan
1

Spain
1

Canada
1

USA
2

Pump
Price

Tax

Product
Price

4.45

4.15

4.14

3.32

3.11

2.98

1.30

0.98

Country

3.78

3.24

3.50

2.68

1.90

2.18

0.71

0.39

0.68

0.91

0.64

0.64

1.21

0.80

0.59

0.59

Per Gallon in 1998 Dollars (December 1998)

1

International Energy Agency

2

Oil and Gas Journal

DOE Oil Price Forecasts

Linear Trends Predicted Beginning From the Actual Price of Year Listed

after U.S. Department of Energy, 1998

12
0

10
0

80

60

40

20


0

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year

1982

1981

1984

1985

1986

1987

1991

1995

Actual

Dollars per Barrel

1998 Oil Price Forecasts

Nine Organizations

U.S. Department of Energy, 1998

35

30

25

20

15

10

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

IEA

DOE
High

Mobil

DRI

DOE
Base

Nat. Res. Canada

Nat. West
Sec.

DOE Low

Pet. Econ. Ltd.

$/BBL (1996 Dollars)

Year

Widely Divergent Forecasts

Make Planning Difficult

29

0
40
80
2000
2050
2100
Annual Oil Production, Gb
A1 AIM
A1 ASF
A1 Image
A1 Message
A1 Minicam
A1 Maria
A1C AIM
A1C Message
A1C Minicam
A1G AIM
A1G Message
A1G Minicam
A1V1 Minicam
A1V2 Minicam
A1T AIM
A1T Message
A1T Maria
A2 ASF
A2 AIM
A2G Image
A2 Message
A2 Minicam
A2-A1 Minicam
B1 Image
B1 AIM
B1 ASF
B1 Message
B1 Maria
B1 Minicam
B1T Message
B1High Message
B1High Minicam
B2 Message
B2 AIM
B2 ASF
B2 Image
B2 Maria
B2 Minicam
B2High Minicam
B2C Maria
Oil Production in the IPCC Scenarios


Gb = billions of barrels 1 barrel = 42 gallons = 159 liters


In 13 scenarios, oil production is still rising in 2100


In none of the scenarios did oil production decrease because of
resource limitation


Oil Production is never going to be more than today (28 Gb)

28

Peak Oil ?

Will ANWR Save us? Help us?

Rapid declines in conventional oil fields
, despite
the aggressive use of secondary and tertiary
production technology.

The North Sea

How good are project predictions?

What are they predicting?

(P1


P6)

Comparison of average

BAU (population
-
based)

and “peak” models

source:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521

Peak Oil


Who you gonna believe!!

AAPG
-

Tinker

What can we replace? How?

Projected World Energy Supplies

1900

1900

1920

1920

1940

1940

1960

1960

1980

1980

2000

2000

2020

2020

2040

2040

2060

2060

2080

2080

3000

3000

20

20

40

40

60

60

80

80

100

100

100 BILLION



BARRELS



Billion



Barrels



of Oil



Equivalent



per

Y

ear



(GBOE)

Billion



Barrels



of Oil



Equivalent



per

Y

ear



(GBOE)

Natural



Gas

Natural



Gas

Crude Oil

Crude Oil

Solar, Wind



Geothermal

Nuclear Electric

1993

Coal

Coal





24929

Decreasing

Fossil Fuels

New Technologies

World Energy Demand

after Edwards,

AAPG 8/97

Hydroelectric

Can We Do it?

Nathan S. Lewis, California Institute of Technology

Oil


Gas
-

Coal

When do we run out?

Are We Using Less Petroleum??

0

10

20

30

“Well
-
to
-
Wheels” Energy Efficiency (%)

0

200

400

600

“Well
-
to
-
Wheels” CO
2

Emissions (gm/mi)

US

(21 mpg)

Japan

(24 mpg)

Europe

(29 mpg)

Advanced Gasoline

Advanced Diesel

Hybrid Gasoline

Hybrid Diesel

Fuel Cell

Advanced Technologies Can

Increase Fuel Economy and

Reduce Emissions

Reducing CO
2

Emissions

Today’s Car Fleet

Future Fleet Potential (US)

Source: Mobil Technology Company

Is this a Separate Issue?

Heavy Oils/Shales

23

• Recovery rates are rising, but less than the decline in the recovery
rates of conventional oil.


• These “high
-
hanging fruits” are increasingly expensive to exploit & in


areas of unknown political stability (China & “New Saudi Arabia in


Venezuela”).


• Processing requires huge amounts of fresh water, natural gas, or
both.

“tar” sands

oil shale

heavy crude oil

Alberta, Venezuela

Southern Rocky Mtns

Canada, Venezuela,

China

Canadian Oil/Tar Sands

1.2 mbd in 2008; projected 2.4 mbd in 2020

4 barrels of water for each barrel of oil

2 tons tar sands = 1 barrel


EROI = ~6:1

bitumen

API Gravity = 8
-
10 (cold molasses)

viscosity = 10,000

high sulfur = 5%

surface mining (~20%)

in
-
situ (SAGD) (~80%)

Hugh resource = 1.7 trillion barrels

but at most 0.3 tb available for extraction

Methane Hydrates

New Hydrocarbon Resources???

Huge Resource Or

Disaster Waiting to Happen?