Cryosphere_Trainor_0003x - Scenarios Network for Alaska ...

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 9 μήνες)

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Snow, Ice and Permafrost

Hazards Workshop

June 13, 2011

Pre
-
workshop Survey Results

Sarah
Trainor
, UAF

Lena
Krutikov
, UAF

Nils
Andreassen
, ION

Karlin

Itchoak
, ION


Thank You

for filling out the survey
!!

23 Responses
-

19 self identified

State, Federal, Private, University


ADEC (2)


ADGGS (2)


ADNR (4)


Division of Mining, Land and Water



Division of Oil and Gas


ADOT (1)


BOEMRE (1)


NOAA, National Weather Service (1)


NMFS (1)


USCG (1)


Alyeska

Pipeline (1)


Private Consulting (1)


University of Alaska (UAA, UAF


4)


Decisions related to snow, ice and
permafrost in Alaska.

Examples of
types of routine
decisions

Travel
Maintenance/Monitoring
Regulatory/Permitting/Safety
Site Evaluation/Infrastructure
Other
Information Needs

SNOW:


Amount, form, & pre
-
existing conditions for driving safety.


Snow pack,
aufeis

formation, temperatures.


What snow
and ice information is available and applicable to hydropower
staff in other
regions?



ICE:


Long term trends in sea ice coverage in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas;
length of the open water season on the OCS; percentage of ice coverage in
the fall shoulder season.


Depth of burial for pilings and appropriate methods of installation; jacking or
subsidence issues; spring breakup conditions; offshore platform fires or oil
spills in non
-
open water conditions (broken ice); Cook Inlet ice effects on
platforms and rig accessibility.


Extent of
shorefast

ice, ice shelf location, and depth of ice
.

Information Needs
-

continued

PERMAFROST:


Prominent direction of the wind, water source and what caused the subsidence.


Local
ground temperatures and variability with season and expected change with
time.


Location and extent of ice
-
rich (thaw unstable) permafrost in existing and
potential transportation corridors.


Forecasts and
nowcasts

from NWS and a sensor system for surface and subsurface
conditions.


Near term and long term effects of
cryospheric

change in relation to geologic
hazards to infrastructure.



HYDROLOGY


Location, discharge volumes.


Hydrology, vegetation information.


Effects of hydropower projects on NMFS trust resources
-

primarily
anadromous

and marine fish and marine mammals.

Information Needs
-

continued

MIX/OTHER:


Climate data and change of climate.


Detailed
current maps.


The extents of snow, ice and permafrost. How and why these extents
are changing in space and time.
What
are predicted changes?


Snow depths, soil temperatures, active layer depths, erosion and
subsidence in relation to gravel fill and remediation projects.


Logging
results from hydrocarbon exploration wells, seismic reflection
and seismic refraction data.


Short and long term effects of access, exploration, development and
transportation activities for oil and gas resources development.
Comparison of site restoration with active human efforts to natural
restoration without intervention(s).


Climatic, geography, materials stability.


Awareness of current research

Are you aware of current research at UA?

Yes
No
Collaboration with UA scientists

Do you collaborate with UA scientists?

Yes
No
Where do you go for scientific
information?


INTERNET:

General online search (7)

Specific websites (8) =
ARLIS, NSSI, CRREL
,
USGS, UAF,

NOAA
-

NSIDC, AEDIS


LITERATURE
:

General (4)

Internal historical literature (1)

Library
(3) = Geophysical Institute library, personal library,

State
Library
System

Conference proceedings (1)



DIRECT COMMUNICATION:

Personal Contacts (4) = GW Scientific, CRREL, USGS, UAF

Phone calls (1) = UAF

Applicant (1
)

Best ways to receive information



Good (or best) way to
get information

Bad way to get
information

Participation in scientific conferences

8



Peer
-
reviewed journal articles

9

3

1
-
page fact sheets sent via regular mail

2

2

4
-
6 page newsletter sent via email

1

1

Technical reports

7



Webinars/seminars/teleconferences

5

1

In
-
person science workshops hosted by
the University

7



On
-
line research database

7

3

Other

2



OTHER:


in
-
person
workshops (local are best)


AEDIS should be restored and updated


Podcasts; iTunes U


Science workshops hosted by industry


Direct interaction with colleagues on an ad
-
hoc basis.


I'd like to see a “who’s who” of
cryospheric

research
-

academia and agencies
-

NOAA, NASA, USGS, UAF, foreign
universities, etc. It can't be a very large pool!


A well maintained, reliable, data rich web site
-

with
occasional announcements on updates through list serves
-

like
ArcticInfo


Best ways to receive information
-

continued

Has scientific
research
been
useful
to you in your planning or decision
making
?

Yes
No
Examples

SNOW/GLACIERS:


Roadway snow quality.


Snow
sampling methods.


Glacier lake outburst floods.


Changes in glacier mass balance and extent



ICE:


Changes in sea ice.


Sea ice extent and character.


Forecasting
ice shelf and thickness


Presence of permafrost in exploration wells
.


The Joint Industry Project (JIP) looking at oil spill response in ice.

Photo by M.
Druckenmiller

PERMAFROST:

Changes in the depth of the active layer.

Forensic study of
syngenetic

permafrost in highway project.



CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS:

Judging climate change impacts on coastal villages.

Climate change and ground temperatures

Impacts
of Climate Change and Variability on Hydropower in SE Alaska



OTHER:

Impacts from pollutants on water.

Constantly using
research to advise the legislature, government, and
industry on potential hazards and resource investments

Oil and gas activity impacts
.

Examples
-

continued

INTERNET:

General online search (4)

Peer
-
reviewed publications (3)



LITERATURE:

General review (4)

Industry Publications (1
)


SELF
:

My organization's own research


Sought and found funding for it, found the right researchers and had it
conducted!”

“Sponsored funding after being approached by a UAF researcher
.”

How
did you learn about the
research?

DIRECT COMMUNICATION:

Personal Contacts (2) = Colleagues, GW Scientific, Arctic Transportation
Network, UAF

Applicant (1)

Conferences (3) = e.g., Alaska Marine Science Symposium

Webinars (1) = ACCAP

SNAP (1)


OTHER
:

Wave
Hindcast

Model

Caribou Steering Committee

How
did you learn about the
research
?
-

continued

Were
you directly involved with the
research?


Yes
No
UAF (10)

USGS (2)

GW Scientific (1)

SNAP (1)

If yes, who
did you work with?

What makes research
especially useful
for your organization
/ decision
-
making
process?


Applicability to management decisions/
practical application


Relevance to current activity


Site specific


Direct involvement


of practitioners

Communicating Uncertainty


“The most important aspect of useful research
for decision making is relevance to current
activity. That is, how can a given hazard be
avoided or mitigated. Forecasting is somewhat
useful, but
full disclosure of assumptions and
probabilistic distributions is critical
. Non
-
science
personnel seldom understand probability, nor,
how it should be used in decision making.
Nevertheless, they often use the 'mean' and call
it good, sometimes with less
-
than
-
desirable
results.”


Barriers
to more effective use of the
University of Alaska as a resource in
your planning and decision
-
making?


COMMUNICATION!


What research is happening


Rapid publication of results


Coordination with agencies


Access to data and results


Research synthesis


Follow through


Transparency

Questions? Comments?

Contact:

sarah.trainor@alaska.edu

907
-

474
-
7878


Photo by M.
Druckenmiller

Decisions
-

Examples


TRAVEL (10):


Ice roads


permitting, season opening, impact assessment, planning
& construction


Roads


permafrost related foundation & surface treatments


treatments post snow and freezing rain


Conditions for travel via car or small aircraft


route selection, timing, tire selection


Location for safe operation of aircraft and
cutters/boats


Examples


continued

MAINTENANCE/MONITORING (11):


Snow
disposal management.


Snow
storage sites.


Pipeline
maintenance.


Glacier lake outburst floods.


Spring breakup flood monitoring.


Glacier monitoring.


Advocate
for state
-
wide monitoring network to improve
long
-
term projections of snow, glacial ice and
permafrost.


Recommend
monitoring of snowpack and glacier mass
balance in licensing procedure for hydropower projects.

Examples
-

continued

REGULATORY/PERMITTING/SAFETY (11):


Agency
-

water use discharge permitting.


Issue
approval to repair subsidence
.


Issue approval for ice roads
.


Safety
: snowpack evaluation for safe mountain travel and rescue
.


Safety related to offshore pipelines.


Approval
of projects
with risk
of hazards to infrastructure and people.


Dismantlement
, Removal and Rehabilitation (DRR) of oil and gas
activity sites.


Review
of applications for approval for surface land uses related to oil,
gas and geothermal resource development


Safety
related to siting offshore drilling.


Regulation
of oil and gas activities in Alaska.


Recommend
projections of future
precip
, temp, snowpack, glacier
mass balance and permafrost changes
for
new hydropower projects.


Decide
how to stabilize degrading permafrost to prevent clean water
act violations.


Treatment
technology required in zone where subsurface organics
present
in discontinuous permafrost zone.

Examples
-

continued

SITE EVALUATION/INFRASTRUCTURE (12):


How are these changes impacting people, property or
infrastructure?


Where
are changes in snow, ice and permafrost occurring?


Site
location for field measurements.


Issue
approval for snow fences.


Foundation
designs in permafrost.


Construction
: foundation selection.


Construction
.


Seasonal
operational planning.


Location
of supporting infrastructure.


Type
and operation of subsurface/surface
infrastructure.


Permafrost
stability under
my house
.


Presence
or absence of near surface permafrost.

Examples
-

continued

OTHER (7):


Oil spill response decisions.


Oil discharge prevention and contingency plans.


What
other physical processes are involved or impacted
in association with these changes?


Topics
for university teaching.


Material
sources in permafrost conditions.


Probability
of gas hydrate occurrence on Alaska
continental shelf.


Recreation
based on snow conditions.


Snow
thickness and its insulation capacity.


Liquid
residual handling methods.

Collaborative Projects

SNOW & GLACIER PROJECTS:


Snow depth data collection methods.


Glacier related hazards.


Periglacial

changes and associated hazards.


Snow modeling input in surface energy balance
modeling


Tundra
travel conditions



PERMAFROST PROJECTS
:


Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)


Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska
(pipeline corridor)


Western Alaska permafrost project


Tundra travel
conditions

Collaborative Projects
-

continued

SNOW PROJECTS:


Snow depth data collection methods.


Snow
modeling input in surface energy balance
modeling


Tundra
travel
conditions


PERMAFROST PROJECTS
:


Permafrost slope stability analysis and monitoring (AUTC)


Permafrost mapping and modeling in parts of interior Alaska
(pipeline corridor)


Western Alaska permafrost project


Tundra travel
conditions


OTHER
PROJECTS:


Energy
Security

Collaborative Projects
-

continued

GLACIER PROJECTS:


Glacier
related hazards.


Periglacial

changes and associated hazards.


ICE PROJECTS
:


Sea ice atlas


River ice safety


Timing of river ice breakup with DGGS, SNAP, ASF and
INE


ENGINEERING PROJECTS
:


UAA School of Engineering projects: numerous and diverse.


Hydroelectric power facilities in Southeast Alaska


Share information developed in our engineering practice from
across the state.

Collaborations



CRREL (2)

UAF (24)

UAA (1)

SNAP & ACCAP (2)

DGGS (1)

Extra glacier images


from Wikimedia Commons


Either public domain or fair use

Extra permafrost images


from Wikimedia Commons


Either public domain or fair use

Extra snow images


from Wikimedia Commons


Either public domain or fair use

Extra sea ice images


from NOAA