Techno-Economic Evaluations

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12 Δεκ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 7 μήνες)

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IBCN, INTEC Broadband Communication Networks
• www.ibcn.intec.ugent.be

INTEC,
Department of Information Technology


Gaston Crommenlaan 8 bus 201, 9050 Gent, Belgium


























Reducing the Uncertainty of Techno
-
Economic Evaluations

in the Telecom Sector

Erik Vanhauwaert, Sofie Verbrugge, Mario Pickavet

Erik.Vanhauwaert@intec.ugent.be • www.ibcn.intec.ugent.be/te

1.
Market penetration over time


Typically an S
-
curve (e.g. Rogers, Bass, …)







What about competition effects?


What in case of failed launch?


2.
Initial prices of relevant components


Estimated using list prices of (similar) equipment, but


B2B prices often unknown to outsiders


What about equipment that is not yet available?


3.
Price erosion


Assumed to follow the Extended Learning Curve principle







Real price modifications occur in jumps


Can Telecom equipment be classified in more detail?



Important Input Parameters

Network

Operator

LinkyWinky

wants

to

launch

a

mobile

video

service

for

its

customers
.




Critical

input

assumptions



Number

of

customers



Cost

of

mobile

network

equipment








Technical

solution



New

network

required

(e
.
g
.

LTE)



Video

streaming

servers








Techno
-
economic

evaluation



Bill

of

Material

for

network

infrastructure



Operational

costs

(wages,

energy,

)



Revenues








LinkyWinky

knows

better

what

to

expect
:



Why
?



Telecom

projects

=

huge

budgets

&

rapidly

changing

environment





High

stakes




Garbage

In,

Garbage

Out
-
syndrome









How

to

improve

(use

of)

existing

models?



Use

historic

data

for



Model

fitting

&

selection



Parameter

classification

system



Identification

of

influencing

factors




Investigate

post
-
launch

corrections

of

the

model



This

can

be

used

pre
-
launch

for

Real

Options


Techno
-
Economic Evaluations

Example: Mobile Video

Reducing the Uncertainty of Techno
-
Economic Evaluations

Modeling

E.g. Network dimensioning


Evaluation

E.g. Net Present Value


2.

3.

Assumptions

Inputs

E.g. Number of users


1.

Costs & Revenues

Implementation

or ?

Techno
-
economic
Model

Goal:

Improve
the