challenges in China

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12 Δεκ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

61 εμφανίσεις

Datacenter and Cloud developments and

challenges
in
China





Terence Graham

Associate Researcher,
BroadGroup

and Hong Kong University


AGENDA

BroadGroup

Study

China’s Mushrooming Cloud

Scale of Investment and Optimism

Inner Mongolia

Market Drivers

Key Challenges


Power and Cooling

Key Challenges


Level of Market Maturity

Key Challenges


Licensing

Business Models

Pricing

Modular

2 Case Studies for Market Entry

Cloud Ecosystem in China

Datacenter

Capacity and Projections

Conclusions

BROADGROUP


CHINA STUDY

New study of China


Assessed
Datacenter

players, markets, strategies and Cloud in China


Conducted over past five months


Will be largest study of its kind


Publication November 2012


Some of the key findings …..

CHINA’S MUSHROOMING CLOUD

5 official Cloud Cities

Beijing

Shanghai

Hangzhou

Wuxi

Shenzhen

CHINA’S MUSHROOMING CLOUD

Further 12 Cloud City Projects

Beijing

Shanghai

Hangzhou

Wuxi

Shenzhen

Harbin

Dalian

Hohhot

Ordoss

Wuhan

Langfang

Chengdu

Lanzhou

Chongqing

Xian

Foshan

Guangzhou

SCALE OF INVESTMENT AND OPTIMISM


More
than 17 provinces and municipalities constructing 30 large
-
scale
datacenters



Total
investment 270 billion RMB (US$43.26 billion)



Total
investment in cloud computing projects in China expected to reach


US$154
billion in coming few years (Asia Cloud Computing Association
)



Rackspace

to accommodate more than 10 million server units, 5x current
total national
datacenter

capacity (
人民
邮电报

)



Heavy construction, light applications



Hype?



From
5 to glut to cloud as
colo
?

INNER MONGOLIA


Power supply and lower costs



New eco system
-

companies announcing set up business processing
centres



Investment occurring in
datacenter

sector



Access huge amounts of space (unlike Tier 1 cities)



Not for all enterprises


latency issue



Young educated workforce?


MARKET DRIVERS

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007
2009
2012E
Social Networking Site Users (millions)

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007
2009
2013E
Online Gaming Market (RMB Billions)

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2007
2009
2012E
Online Sales Volume (RMB Billions)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Growth in China being driven by increasing consumer and business online

“More than one
-
third of today's Internet

traffic
is devoted to video consumption, and

we
expect that to grow to 80 per cent by the

end
of 2015“


Scott
Guthrie, corporate vice president, Windows Azure

application
platform, Microsoft


+ MOBILE GROWTH



Text, Video, Photos, Mobile Internet ….

Transactions/Data Storage

Social Networking (Behaviour)

Gaming

MARKET DRIVERS

12
-
5 Targets

1.2
billion mobile users

More than 800 million Internet users, Internet penetration rate of over 57%

Fixed broadband Internet access to more than 250 million, more than 40 million
FTTH users

Over 450 million 3G users, accounting for over 36% of total number of mobile
phone users

International bandwidth of
8Tbps

Achieve LTE commercialization

IPv6 broadband access users more than 25 million


5 Year Plan

2012
(Year 1) Server virtualization and desktop virtualization (VDI)

2013 (Year 2) Try to upgrade to cloud

2014 (Year 3) Private cloud plan

2015 (Year 4) Public cloud plan

2016 (Year 5) Private/public/hybrid cloud



MARKET DRIVERS

SEI Strategic Emerging
Industries

Cloud
computing industry chain expected to reach 750 billion to 1 trillion RMB

by
2015



There is no doubt datacenters are an indispensable and integral part of the core

resources
that make up a country’s economic, political, social, and cultural activities,

and
will become one of the country‘s most important strategic assets.” (
周宏仁
)

National broadband
plan


Broadband Development

1.6
trillion RMB, of which 570 billion RMB in broadband fixed access networks

Encouragement of private capital into telecommunications sector (June 2012)


KEY CHALLENGES


POWER AND COOLING

Price of Power

Price 80RMB per kVA (Beijing)


Can negotiate to 38RMB in Shanghai


High Power Consumption

2011
--

total
datacenter power consumption in China
70
billion
kWh
-

1.5
% of the
country’s
total (Other estimates put at 5% of total output)


Medium Sized
Datacenter

To use
200w powered servers in a medium
-
sized computing
center

of 10,000 servers,
annual electricity
bill

> 30
million
yuan



New energy
efficiency
focus

Majority of current
datacenters



coal powered

MIIT

业节
能“十二五”



c慬汳a
f潲⁴oe est慢汩獨浥n琠潦⁃桩o愠䥄䌠杲een st慮a慲ds⁡ d
慮a㠥⁲edu捴楯渠楮
dat慣anter

偕䔠批
㈰ㄵ


PUE values

Need to move from current high 2.5 to below 1.5


KEY CHALLENGES


LEVEL OF MARKET MATURITY

CLOUD


Still in early stage

Still not realized
saves cost on OPEX
not CAPEX

ENTERPRISE


IT
Dept

gap with

CLOUD

IT departments
-

Fear of centralization,

Internal gap with business
depts


C
ustomization at odds with monthly fee model

+
strong
influence of 3
rd

party
ISVs and SIs


Long refreshment cycles

Complexity of Networks and
connectivity procurement

BUSINESS CHALLENGES

Finding people with 3
-
5 years

cloud experience

CLOUD

KNOW
-
HOW

CLOUD

COMPLEXITY

Vastly underestimated

CLOUD

INCUBATOR

ENVIRONMENT

Poor

TRUST,

SECURITY

LIABILITY

STANDARDS

DATA

PRIVACY

KEY MARKET=

LARGE

ENTERPRISES

Who want

CLOUD

Perhaps the most significant current challenge


Policy
uncertainty: Very black and very
grey


“In
building our first datacenter in China, we have learned a lot, how to
communicate with authorities, what applications are needed, what
government approvals are required, how to deal with delays and setbacks.”


Current


one license to build datacenter; another to arrange connectivity


VIE scheme




KEY CHALLENGES
-

LICENSING

End user
(list) price is 4000
-
6000 RMB per month (per rack), with some
areas
cheaper


In
Tianjin there is one site, a reseller, offering 2400 RMB per month

PRICING

MODULAR

Fast deployment


3 months
-

but not cheap


Sites
like
Ordoss

(Inner Mongolia) might
be more suitable


Not an easy sell in China/not perceived as flexible


21Vianet own patents on modular
datacenters


MARKET BARRIERS

Access to capital / funding


scale issue for China key market coverage



Very high
capex

requirements


There are 3 kinds of IDC license


(1) like carrier (China Telecom, Unicom) they
don’t need a license can do IDC using telecoms license, (2) (domestic)
companies
like SDS or GDS, can build
DC and provide service, (3) just buy
capacity, rent DC from China Telecom or other IDC, and become a reseller
.


Access to Power


limitations of grid


customized solution for higher power

Very expensive


Access to bandwidth


especially cross city/province


Fibre link and last mile


DATACENTER COMPETITION
-

LANDSCAPE

“Big 3”

China Telecom 300

Unicom

China Mobile


Different cloud strategies

Carrier Neutral

21
Vianet


GDS

Dr
Peng


SDS

Planning to build

Alibaba

Baidu

Tencent


Massive Projects

Range International



2 CASE STUDIES FOR CHINA MARKET ENTRY

Case S
tudy 1
-

SST

-

Shanghai
Symphony Telecom


信天通


Importance
of a clear cloud
story



Case Study 2


Equinix


Following the
US$230.5
million acquisition of Asia Tone in July 2012,
Equinix

gained a total of
6
datacenters

and one disaster recovery
center

located across
Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore, including SH5. The first phase of SH5 will
provide 200 cabinet equivalents, expanding to 900 with a gross area of 80,000
square feet when all three phases of SH5 are completed





CONCLUSIONS

Who will be the winners?


Experience elsewhere shows winning datacentre companies:


-
Have size and scale

-
Achieved superior energy efficiency

-
Secured renewable energy supply

-
Have established clients and service offerings

-
Vertical market expertise

-
Regional expertise (multi
-
country)

-
Cost/Technical Differentiation


谢谢!

Thank
you


www.broad
-
group.com

xx

MARKET PLAYER LANDSCAPE

3 state
-
owned
operators


From
Red Ocean (
红海
)

to Blue Ocean (
蓝海

) back to Red
Ocean

“In
China the 3 operators [start] with 3 different cloud strategies but
in
the

future
will do similar things. We always compete, red ocean,
price
is important.”


TAB
:
Tencent

Alibaba

Baidu


3
rd

party or carrier
-
neutral datacenters


ISVs


SIs



Backbone network bandwidth (
骨干网
带宽
) of 22
Tbps


International bandwidth (

际出口带宽
) 925
Gbps



Number of broadband users 80 million


Datacenter space over 1 million square meters


Datacenters 300+


3
star

Tier ?

and
above datacenters 265


5 overseas datacenters


Racks over 100,000, with another 80,000 on the way


Currently operating 20,000
VMs

(
高性能虚
拟主机
) in 3
datacenters in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Sichuan


Storage capacity of 20,000 TB
IaaS

services


Installing 300,000
WiFi

hotspots to reach a total of 900,000
around
country


CHINA TELECOM

CHINA TELECOM


NEW BUSINESS UNIT

Quest for the IT holy grail:


March 2012 China Telecom creates new business unit bringing
IDC and cloud computing business together,
中国
电信天翼云
公司

or
中国
电信云计算公司
,

led by Dr. Jerry
Xie

(
谢朝阳
)


Key implications:






Aim to build nationwide network of datacenters


Still
relatively young
companies so will take some time


Fear
of becoming obsolete like Yahoo


(company DNA)


Use
cloud
-
like technologies to build platform that delivers better
end user
experience for content (main competitive advantage)


Specs
: commodity
-
PC server & rack power & bandwidth
-
hungry & own
management software (“special sauce”)


Like
-
Google
approach to
datacenters?


Change
in relationship with
China Telecom & China Unicom


Openness
&
Zynga

problem 70,000
web
-
based applications run on
Baidu

platform or run on their own servers with interface defined by
Baidu


BAIDU / TENCENT / ALIBABA


SEI Strategic Emerging Industries


C
loud
computing industry
chain
expected to reach 750 billion to 1
trillion
RMB
by 2015



There is no doubt datacenters are an indispensable and integral part
of the core resources that make up a country’s economic, political,
social, and cultural activities, and will become one of the country‘s
most important strategic assets.” (
周宏仁
)


National broadband plan


The campaign against fake
broadband


1.6
trillion
RMB,
of which 570 billion
RMB in
broadband fixed access
networks


Encouragement of private capital into
telecommunications sector (June 2012)


GOVERNMENT AS ENABLER


1.2 billion mobile users


More than 800 million Internet users, Internet
penetration rate of over 57%


Fixed broadband
Internet access to more than 250
million, more than 40 million FTTH
users


Over
450 million 3G users, accounting for over 36%
of
total number of mobile phone users


International bandwidth
of

Tbps


Achieve LTE
commercialization


IPv6 broadband access users more than 25 million


TARGETS


有没有中国特色

的云计算发展路径?


Cloud with special Chinese
characteristics?

CLOUD ECOSYSTEM (1)

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I
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A
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?

CLOUD ECOSYSTEM (2)

In China
-

Cloud = IDC + CDN

China Mobile rolling out
IaaS

in Guangdong province by end of 2012


VDI licensing “3 for 1”

China Unicom in Shanghai


THE GROWTH OF CLOUD

In a Nutshell


“They
have no idea how difficult it will be to replace MS and
VMware and are scrambling to develop a ‘Chinese solution.’

It is
a really hard problem.

They will need 10s of 1000s of engineers,
over multiple years, to engineer an alternative.

Then find a way
to lock it down and create a trade barrier with a ‘national
ecosystem.’ Ha! The Chinese have been good at import
substitution with a lot of things but software is not a strong
point, especially
large
-
scale
systems. As for CT, like
bellheads

everywhere, they are going to have a really difficult time
[figuring out]
life
-
beyond
-
transport… With
shared services they
will start with storage and disaster recovery, maybe managed
security. But
that is a long way from server virtualization and
cloud, or application services.

You are right, though, they have to
get started somewhere.”


-

IT expert


Aliyun


“We
are catching up quickly, very focused,
do not
lack
[for] connectivity
of
customer. We
know what is missing,
what needs must be fulfilled. What is important is that
we would rather have 3 of the best cloud services instead
of 5 mediocre
ones.”


“We
are aiming for 1 billion RMB in revenue from
Aliyun
.
We currently have less than 50,000 machines, we are
shooting for 300,000 in the next 16
-
18 months. We have
more than 1000 developers
.”

[July 2012]

3
rd
-
party IDCs (

三方
IDC



)



To create a cross
-
cloud, cross
-
region, real
-
time application
support
network.”


“Learn from the semiconductor industry how to [foster] value
creation for the whole ecosystem. Greater China has become
the foundry, the middle layer between commercial production
and value
-
added design. We will play a role in the cloud akin
to that played by a foundry and provide a basic foundation for
cloud services, drop down the cost of innovation.”


Conflict of interest? Financial resources?



ISVs: Who will be the IBM of China?


SIs: Who will be the Huawei of cloud?


Not another 5
-
Year Plan


2012 (Year 1) Server virtualization and desktop
virtualization (VDI)


2013 (Year 2) Try to upgrade to cloud


2014 (Year 3) Private cloud plan


2015 (Year 4) Public cloud plan


2016 (Year 5) Private/public/hybrid
cloud

谢谢!

Thank
you