Oil Disads Core

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 11 μήνες)

1.194 εμφανίσεις

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


1

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Oil Disads Core
Oil Disads Core

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....

1

***Peak Oil No***

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..............................

3

Sustainable Oil


No Peak Coming

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......

4

Sustainable Oil


No Peak Comi
ng

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......

5

Sustainable Oil


General

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....................

6

Sustainable Oil


Unknown Reserves

................................
..

7

Sustainable Oil


Unknown Reserves

................................
..

8

Sustainable Oil


Supply/Dema
nd

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.......

9

Sustainable Oil


Tar Sands

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...............

10

Sustainable Oil


Tar Sands

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...............

11

Sustainable Oil


Arctic Reserves

................................
......

12

Sustainable Oil


Abiotic Oil

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.............

13

Sustainable Oil


Oil Shale

................................
................

14

Sustainable Oil


Technology

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............

15

Sustainable Oil


Technology

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16

***Peak Oil Yes***

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17

AT No Peak Coming

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18

AT No Peak Coming

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19

AT No Peak Coming

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20

AT General Sustainable Oil

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21

AT General Sustainable Oil

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22

AT Tar Sands

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23

AT Unknown Reserves

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24

AT Supply/Demand

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25

AT Arctic Reserves

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26

AT Abiotic Oil

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...

27

AT Oil Shale

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28

AT Oil Shale

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......

29

AT Technology

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..

30

AT Technology

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..

31

***Oil DAs


General***
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32

UQ


Prices Up

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..

33

UQ


IEA

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34

UQ


Demand Up

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35

UQ


Collapse Now Worse

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................

36

UQ


Now is Key
-

Companies

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37

UQ


Now is Key


Infrastructure

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.....

38

UQ


Now is Key


Oil Economy

................................
.....

39

UQ


Now is Key


Oil Supplies

................................
.......

40

UQ


Now is Key


Mid East

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............

41

Link


Alt Energy Tradeoff

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...............

42

Link


Alt Energy Tradeoff

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42

Link


Arctic

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44

Link


Demand

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..

45

Link


Investment

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..............................

46

Link


Perception


Prices

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47

Link


Perception


Prices

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48

Link


Perception


Investors

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49

Link


Prices

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......

50

Link


SPS

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51

Link


Tax Credits

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52

Profit Key to Exploration

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53

Profit Key to Exploration

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54

Exploration Expensive


Location

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55

AT Big Oil Invested in Alternatives

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..

56

AT Alt Energy Shift Inev.

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57

AT Collapse Inev.
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58

AT Oil From Shale

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............................

59

AT Reserves

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60

AT Resiliency (Drilling Costs Increasing)

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61

***Oil DAs


Answers***

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62

UQ


Prices Down

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63

US Econ Turn

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64

Global Econ Turn

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65

Terrorism Turn

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..

66

Terrorism Turn


No Security

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67

OPEC Intervention

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68

US Intervention

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................................
.

69

Helps Companies

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70

Oil Support Now

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71

Prices Rebound

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..

72

Reserves Solve Shocks

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73

Oil Exploration = Conflict

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74

AT
Regulations

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................................
.

75

AT Regulations

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.

76

AT Price Drops

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..

77

AT High Prices Key

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78

***Backstopping DA***

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79

Backstopping DA


Shell

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80

Backstopping DA


UQ


Alternative Energy $$ Down
...

81

Backstopping DA


UQ


Alternative Energy $$ Down
...

82

Backstopping DA


UQ


Oi
l Price Rising

.......................

83

Backstopping DA


Link


Space Tech

............................

84

Backstopping DA


I/L


AE Causes Low Prices

.............

85

Backstopping DA


I/L


AE Causes Low Prices

.............

86

Backstopping DA


I/L


AE Causes Low Prices

.............

87

Backstopping DA


I/L


High Prices = AE

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88

Backstopping DA


Impact


Terrorism

...........................

89

Backstopping DA


Oil Will Undercut AE

.......................

90

Backstopping DA


Oil Will Undercut AE

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91

Backstopping DA


Price Shocks

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92

Backstopping DA


Low Demand = Oil Glut

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93

Backstopping DA


Low Price = Consumpt

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94

Backstopping DA


Alt Energy Bad

................................
.

95

Backstopping DA


AT


Production Peaked

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96

Backstopping DA


AT


No Oil Glut

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97

***AT Backstopping DA***

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98

AFF


UQ


Alternative Energy Up Now

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99

AFF


UQ


Alternative Energy Up Now

.......................

100

AFF


UQ


Alternative E
nergy Up Now

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101

AFF


UQ


Alternative Energy Up Now

.......................

102

AFF


UQ


Prices Will Fall

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103

AFF


UQ


Production Peaked

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104

AFF


UQ


Oi
l Prices Low

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105

AFF


UQ


Consumption Down

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....

106

AFF


Oil Glut Bad

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107

AFF


No Oil Glut
................................
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108

AFF


Oil Bad

................................
................................
.

109

AFF


Demand Inevitable

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110

AFF


Alt Energy Causes Low Oil Prices

.......................

111

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


2

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

AFF


AT


Price Shocks

................................
................

112

AFF


AT


Oil Kills Alt Energy

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....

113

AFF


AT


Consumption Bad
-
Econ
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114

***Nigeria Oil DA***

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115

Nigeria DA


Shell
................................
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116

Nigeria DA


Shell
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117

Nigeria DA


Shell
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118

Nigeria DA


UQ


Economy

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119

Nigeria DA


UQ


Economy

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120

Nigeria DA


Link


Africa


Exports

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121

Nigeria DA


Link


Investment

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122

Nigeria DA


Link


Investment

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123

Nigeria DA


Link


Infrastructure

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..

124

Nigeria DA


Link


Infrastructure

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125

Nigeria DA


Impact


Co
nflict

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126

Nigeria DA


Impact


Global Econ

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127

Nigeria DA


AT Not Enough Oil

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...

128

***AT Nigeria Oil DA***

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129

AFF


Impact Turn


Civi
l War

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130

AFF


Impact Turn


Civil War

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.......

131

AFF


Impact Turn


Environment

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..

132

AFF


Impact Turn


Democracy

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133

AFF


Nigeria


No Lin
k

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134

AFF


Nigeria


No Link


Oil not key

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135

AFF


No Link


Oil Fails

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136

AFF


UQ


Econ

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137

AFF


UQ


Econ

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138

***Central Asia Oil DA***

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139

CA DA


Shell

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.

140

CA DA


Shell

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.

141

CA DA


UQ


Azerbaijan


Investment

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142

CA DA


UQ


Kaza
khstan


Oil Prices Up

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143

CA DA


UQ


Kazakhstan


Development Coming

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144

CA DA


UQ


Kazakhstan


Now Key


Recovery

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145

CA DA


UQ


Kazakhstan


Now Key


Price

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146

CA DA


UQ


Econ

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147

CA DA


UQ


Econ

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148

CA DA


Link


Infrastructure

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149

CA DA


Link


Azerbaijan


Infrastructure

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150

CA DA


Link


Kazakhstan


Exports

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151

CA DA


Link


Kazakhstan


Exports

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152

CA DA


Link


Kazakhstan


Oil K2 Economy

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153

CA DA


Link


Kazakh


Oil Industry K2 Economy

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154

CA DA


Link


Kazakh


Exploration K2 Economy

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155

CA DA


Link


Kazakh


Oil Prices K2 Economy

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156

CA DA


Link


Kazakh


Oil
Infrastructure

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157

CA DA


Impact


CA Instability

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...

158

CA DA


Impacts


Kazakh


CA/Russia Econ

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159

CA DA


Impacts


Kazakh


Impacts


Econ

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160

CA DA


Impacts


Kazakhstan


Loose Nukes

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161

CA DA


AT


Inflation

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162

CA DA


Kazakhstan


AT Diversification

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163

***AT Central Asia Oil DA***

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164

AFF


UQ


Econ

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165

AFF


Turn


Democracy

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166

AFF


Turn


Econ/War

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167

AFF


Oil Fails


Corruption

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168

AFF


Collapse Inevitable

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169

AFF


Collapse Inevitable

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170

AFF


Collapse Inevitable

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171

AFF


Instability Inevitable
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172

AFF


No Impact


Other Investors

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173

AFF


No Impact


Won’t Escalate

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174

AFF


No Impact


Won’t Escalate

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175

AFF


Kazakhstan


Transition

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176

AFF


K
azakhstan


AT Dependence

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177

AFF


Kazakhstan


National Fund

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178

AFF


Kazakhstan


Empirically Denied

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179

***Venezuela Oil DA***

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Venezuela DA


Shell

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Venezuela DA


Shell

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Venezuela DA


Shell

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183

Venezuela DA


UQ
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184

Venezuela DA


Link

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1
85

Venezuela DA


I/L

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186

Venezuela DA


I/L

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187

Venezuela DA


Impact

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188

Venezuela DA


Panama Impact Scenario

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189

***AT V
enezuela Oil DA***

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190

AFF


UQ

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191

AFF


Alt Causes for Econ Collapse
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192

AFF


Alt Causes for Econ Collapse
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193

AFF


Alt Causes for E
con Collapse
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194

AFF


Alt Causes for War

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195

AFF


Venezuelan Econ Won’t Crash

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196

AFF


Collapse in SQ

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197



Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


3

Gemini


Oil Disads Core


***Peak Oil No***



Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


4

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


No Peak Coming

There will be no peak anytime soon.

Foss 5
(Brian, AP Business Writer, 6
-
24, http://www.rense.com/general66/ssobn.htm, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Global oil production is not likely to peak anytime soon
,
contrary to talk that has helped p
ropel prices close to $60 a
barrel, although lower prices may still be a few years away, a prominent energy consultancy said Tuesday. Cambridge Energy R
esearch
Associates said that
,

instead of a crest being reached sometime this decade, an inflection poin
t in world oil
output will occur sometime beyond 2020, after which production will plateau for several more decades
.


There is no energy crisis


it’s a government conspiracy.

Williams 80
(Lindsey, Endorsed by Hugh M. Chance


Former Senator of The State o
f Colorado, 3
-
19,
http://www.reformation.org/energy
-
non
-
crisis
-
ch1.html, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

There is no true energy crisis. There never has been an energy crisis . . . except as it has been produced
by the Federal government for the purpose of controlling the Ame
rican people
.
That's a rather dramatic
statement to make, isn't it? But you see, at one time I too thought there was an energy crisis. After all, that was what I ha
d been told by
the news media and by the Federal government. I thought we were running out o
f crude oil and natural gas. Then I heard, I saw, and I
experienced what I am about to write. I soon came to realize that there is no energy crisis. There is no need for America to
go cold or for
gas to be rationed. We shall verify these statements as we p
rovide the facts for you. You might be surprised to find that we will also
show why the price of gas will remain high, and in fact will go higher than it is now. You've read about the controversy. Yo
u've heard
the statements, the claims, the counterclaims
. You've read about the problems of environmental protection, such as the need to protect
birds whose species are becoming extinct. What you haven't heard is that $2 million dollars was spent to go around the nest o
f one
species. On your property, you'd ha
ve moved the nest

not so on the Alaska Pipeline. Not true? Questionable? We'll give you the facts.
You've read about the objections of the native Alaskans whose territory is being exploited by those giant corporations that c
an never be
satisfied. You've he
ard about the excessive profits made by the oil companies. But you haven't heard about the incredible regulations that
forced the costs of the Trans
-
Alaska oil pipeline up from a projected $2 billion dollars to beyond $12 billion dollars. We'll tell you mo
re
about that
.

I became convinced of the fact that there is no energy crisis when Senator Hugh Chance
visited me on the pipeline
.
As well as being a former Senator of the State of Colorado, he is also an outstanding Christian
gentleman. He came to the pip
eline at my invitation, to speak in the work camps for which I was responsible as Chaplain, on the
northern sector of the Trans
-
Alaska Oil pipeline. While I was there I arranged for him to have a tour of the Prudhoe Bay facility.
Senator Chance was shown
everything he wanted to see, and he was told everything he wanted to know. The Senator was given
information by a number of highly
-
placed responsible executives with Atlantic Richfield, and these were cooperative with him at all
times. He especially gained

information from one particular official whom we shall call Mr. X, because of the obvious need to protect
his anonymity. After Senator Chance had talked at length with Mr. X, we came back to my dormitory room at Pump Station No. 1

and
sat down.

Senator C
hance said to me, "Lindsey, I can hardly believe what I have seen and heard today
."
I waited to see what it was that was so startling. Remember, as yet I had no inkling that there was, in fact, no true energy
crisis. Senator
Chance was very serious. He w
as obviously disturbed. He looked up at me as he said, "Lindsey
,

I was in the Senate of the
State of Colorado when the Federal briefers came to inform us as to why there is an energy crisis.
Lindsey, what I have heard and seen today, compared with what I w
as told in the Senate of the State of
Colorado, makes me realize that almost everything I was told by those Federal briefers was a
downright lie!"

At that point Senator Chance asked if I could arrange for another interview with Mr. X on the following day.

I did
arrange for that interview, and the Senator and Mr. X sat in Mr. X's office. I was allowed to be present, as Senator Hugh Cha
nce asked
question after question after question. Senator Chance's first question was, "Mr. X, how much crude oil is there
under the North Slope
of Alaska, in your estimation?" Mr. X answered, "In my estimation
,

from the seismographic work and the drillings we
have already done, I am convinced that there is as much oil under the North Slope of Alaska as there is
in all of Sau
di Arabia.
"

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


5

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


No Peak Coming

Peak oil theory is based on anecdotal evidence, empirically proven.

Lynch 9
(Michael, Former Director for Asian Energy and Security at the Center for International Studies at MIT,
8
-
24, http://www.nytimes.com/
2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

Like many Malthusian beliefs,

peak oil theory has been promoted by a motivated group of scientists and
laymen who base their conclusions on poor analyses of data and misinterpretations of technical
material.

But

because the news media and prominent figures like James Schlesinger, a former secretary of energy, and the oilman T.
Boone Pickens have taken peak oil seriously, the public is understandably alarmed.

A careful examination of the facts
shows that most arg
uments about peak oil are based on anecdotal information, vague references and
ignorance of how the oil industry goes about finding fields and extracting petroleum
. And
this has been
demonstrated over and over again: the founder of the Association for the
Study of Peak Oil first
claimed in 1989 that the peak had already been reached, and Mr. Schlesinger argued a decade earlier
that production was unlikely to ever go much higher
.


History proves that peak oil won’t come.

Lynch 9
(Michael, Former Director for

Asian Energy and Security at the Center for International Studies at MIT,
8
-
24, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

When the large supply disruptions of 1973 and 1979 led to skyrocketing prices, nearly all oil experts
said
the underlying cause was resource scarcity and that prices would go ever higher in the future.
The
oil companies diversified their investments


Mobil even started buying up department stores!


and
President Jimmy Carter pushed for the development of synt
hetic fuels like shale oil, arguing that markets
were too myopic to realize the imminent need for substitutes. All sorts of policy wonks, energy consultants
and Nobel
-
prize
-
winning economists jumped on the bandwagon to explain that prices would only go up


even though they had never done so historically. Prices instead proceeded to slide for two decades
,
rather as the tide ignored King Canute.


Oil is plentiful and prices are expected to drop.

Lynch 9
(Michael, Former Director for Asian Energy and Securit
y at the Center for International Studies at MIT,
8
-
24, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

In the end,
perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak
-
oil advocates is that the earth was endowed
with only 2 trillion barrels o
f “recoverable” oil. Actually
, the consensus among geologists is that
there
are some 10 trillion barrels out there
. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but
improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent


another 2.5 trillion barrels


in
an economically viable way. And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which in time
we may be able to efficiently tap.
Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to
the hist
orical level of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa
and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North
Dakota.

But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincin
g policymakers in Washington and
elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price. (That’s the logic that led the Carter administration to
create the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, a $3 billion boondoggle that never produced a gallon of useable fuel.
)

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


6

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


General

The oil supply is abundant if not infinite.

Kudlow 8
(Larry, CEO of Lawrence Kudlow & Co, 7
-
11, http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/164404
/mccain
-
exactly
-
wrong
-
energy/larry
-
kudlow, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

When asked about gas prices at
the pump, and whether they could go any lower, Sen. McCain said he didn’t
think so because “You’ve got a finite supply, basically, and a cartel controlling it.” This is exactly wrong.
There is no finite supply, or if there is we are 100 years away from it
. I don’t know who has put this
thought into the senator’s mind, but it is a bad thought in terms of energy and a bad thought in terms of the
politics of this campaign. Look,
we have the Bakken fields, the outer continental shelf and all the
offshore dril
ling opportunities, ANWR, and so forth. There’s

probably
over a trillion barrels worth of
reserves out there
. And Republicans in the Senate are trying to move a deregulated drilling bill through the
process. McCain should be backing this and talking about
it.


There are more proven reserves every year


history proves.

Giles 6
(George, 7
-
6, http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig6/giles6.html, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

If we consider that the world is consuming a lot of oil, and that the consumption grows each and every year,
t
he key question becomes how long until we run out? I calculate this to be about 49 years at current
consumption rates. These could actually be too low and thus we could be burning it faster than that
depending on rates of consumption in growing economies l
ike India and China. The flaw in this argument is
that
every year we have more proven reserves at the end of the year than we did at the beginning,
thanks to vigorous exploration and improved extraction technologies. This has been the consistent
theme for

as long as oil reserves have been calculated. There has never been a time that the oil industry
has had less proven reserves at the beginning of the year than at the end, even with the intervening 365
days of consumption being factored in
. Odd circumstanc
es indeed for a scarce resource!


Alternative options would unnecessarily waste government money.

Lynch 9
(Michael, Former Director for Asian Energy and Security at the Center for International Studies at MIT,
8
-
24, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opini
on/25lynch.html, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down closer to the historical level of $30 a barrel
as new supplies come forward in the deep waters off West Africa and Latin America
, in East Africa,
and perhaps in the Bakk
en oil shale fields of Montana and North Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken
Littles from convincing policymakers in Washington and elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in
price. (That’s the logic that led the Carter administration to crea
te the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, a $3
billion boondoggle that never produced a gallon of useable fuel.) This is not to say that we shouldn’t keep
looking for other cost
-
effective, low
-
pollution energy sources


why not broaden our options? But we
can’t
let the false threat of disappearing oil lead the government to throw money away on harebrained
renewable energy schemes or impose unnecessary and expensive conservation measures on a public
already struggling through tough economic times
.


Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


7

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oi
l


Unknown Reserves

Conventional wisdom is flawed, human creativity will increase oil supply over time by
tapping unknown reserves.

Boudreaux 10
(Donald J, Prof. of Econ. at George Mason University, 2
-
24, http://www.pittsburghlive.
com/x/pittsburghtrib/o
pinion/columnists/boudreaux/s_668583.html, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Eventually we'll run out
--

or so says conventional wisdom.
Conventional wisdom
, however, often
is
handicapped by a poor grasp of economics
. And among the important lessons of economics is that the
su
pply of resources is less a matter of physics than of, well, economics. First,
no mineral, no plant, no
geographical location, no anything becomes a resource unless and until human creativity and ingenuity
figure out how to put that thing to use

in a mann
er that satisfies human wants.
Petroleum was no
resource to our ancestors

who had yet to grasp the fact that it can be refined and burned in ways that
improve the quality of life. In fact, I suspect that whenever that gooey, noxious black stuff appeared i
n
freshwater creeks in pre
-
Columbian Pennsylvania, natives of that region regarded it as a nuisance. So
economically, the Earth's supply of nonrenewable energy resources was, back then, much smaller than
it is today. Human creativity and effort turned a n
uisance into a resource. Human creativity

and effort
also
are at work finding not only substitutes for oil, but also new supplies of oil. Each success

on this
front
increases the supply of oil
. The reason is that
oil deposits that remain unknown are econo
mically
nonexistent
. The same is true of oil deposits that are known to exist but are currently too costly to tap. Oil in
the Earth's crust that is out of reach with existing technology is no more of a resource today than is oil on
Pluto. But if and when
human creativity discovers cost
-
effective techniques for extracting that oil, it then
--

and only then
--

becomes a resource.
In effect, more of the resource "oil" is created
.


We are like mosquitoes on a swimming pool of blood


we don’t know about our hu
ge
quantity of oil.

Boudreaux 10
(Donald J, Prof. of Econ. at George Mason University, 2
-
24, http://www.pittsburghlive.
com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/boudreaux/s_668583.html, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Scenario One:
You're a hungry mosquito on the surface of a
n enormous balloon. The balloon contains
as much blood as an Olympic
-
size swimming pool contains water
. You, hungry mosquito that you are,
inject your snoot into the balloon and enjoy a tasty meal. Of course, by doing so, you negligibly reduce the
volume o
f blood in the balloon. But
whether you know it or not, you can in fact gorge yourself on blood
from this balloon for the rest of your life and there will still be far more blood remaining in the balloon
at your death than you've consumed during your lifet
ime
. Scenario Two: You're a hungry mosquito on a
balloon the size of a child's marble. You take a meal. The size of your meal relative to the blood
-
contents of
the tiny balloon is large; you significantly reduce its contents. I don't know if humanity and

its demand for
oil is like the mosquito in Scenario One, but I'm sure that we're not like the mosquito in Scenario Two. We
might be in some intermediate scenario
--

say, like a mosquito feasting on blood from a balloon the size of a
beach ball. But
we co
uld be like the mosquito in Scenario One. That mosquito

needn't know
--

probably
wouldn't know
--

that she's atop a physical quantity of blood that is practically limitless
. If she's told,
accurately, that the amount of blood in her balloon is finite, she
might worry that she'll run out of blood, or
that she'll drink so much that what eventually remains in the balloon will be too costly for her to suck out;
she might persuade herself to drink less blood. Would she be wise to do so? A mosquito feeding from
a
gargantuan balloon full of blood would not be wise to worry that the finiteness of the supply of her source of
nutrition means that she will eventually run out of blood from that balloon. If Scenario One is closer to
reality
--

and the evidence so far s
upports that possibility
--

then
the relevant constraint on our getting oil
out of the ground is not any scarcity of the physical amount of oil that exists as much as it is the
scarcity of our ingenuity and resources for use in that endeavor. As this ingen
uity and these resources
become more abundant, the amount of oil available for our use will over time rise
.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


8

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Unknown Reserves

Oil is abundant and is likely to grow.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/
index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Daniel Yergin's
Cambridge Energy Research

Associates (CERA) disagrees. Its analysis
finds that "the
remaining global oil resource base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels
-

three times as large as the (claimed)
1.2

trillion barrels by (peak oil) proponents
." CERA argues further that
peak oil reasoning is faulty

and,
"if accepted, (may) distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy
future." It states as well that
the "global re
source base of

conventional and unconventional
oils....is 4.82
trillion barrels and likely to grow" and bases its analysis on fields

now in production and those "
yet
-
to
-
be produced or discovered
." Its chairman, Daniel Yergin, noted that: "
This is the fift
h time that the
world is said to be running out of oil. Each time....technology and the opening of new frontier areas has
banished the specter of decline
. There's no reason to think that technology is finished this time."






Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


9

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Supply/Dem
and

Demand will not remain high forever. When demand decreases, oil supply will rise above
demand.

Moffatt 3
(Mike, Masters Degree in Econ. Theory from the U. of Rochester, 8
-
17, http://economics.
about.com/cs/macroeconomics/a/run_out_of_oil.htm, 7
-
2
-
11,
AH)

At least not in a physical sense.
There will still be oil in the ground 10 years from now, and 50 years
from now and 500 years from now. This will hold true no matter if you take a pessimistic or optimistic
view

about the amount of oil still available
to be extracted. Let's suppose that the supply really is quite
limited. What will happen
as the supply starts to diminish
? First we would expect to see some wells run
dry and either be replaced with new wells
that

have higher associated costs or not be rep
laced at all. Either of
these
would cause the price at the pump to rise. When the price of gasoline rises, people naturally buy
less of it
; the amount of this reduction being determined by the amount of the price increase and the
consumer's elasticity of d
emand for gasoline. This does not necessarily mean that people will drive less
(though it is likely), it may mean that consumers trade in their SUVs for smaller cars, hybrid vehicles, or cars
that run on alternative fuels. Each consumer will react to the p
rice change differently, so we would expect to
see everything from more people bicycling to work to used car lots full of Lincoln Navigators. If we go back
to Economics 101, this effect is clearly visible.
The continual reduction of the supply of oil is re
presented
by a series of small shifts of the supply curve to the left and an associated move along the demand
curve
. Since gasoline is a normal good, Economics 101 tells us that we will have a series of price increases
and a series of reductions in the tot
al amount of gasoline consumed.
Eventually the price will reach a point
where gasoline will become a niche good purchased by very few consumers, while other consumers will
have found alternatives to gas. When this happens there will still be plenty of oil
in the ground, but
consumers will have

found alternatives that make more economic sense to them, so there will be
little, if
any, demand for gasoline
.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


10

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Tar Sands

The current oil estimates do not take into account the abundance of tar san
ds.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

In a 2005 report it stated that: "
The

hydrocarbon
resources in place around the world are sufficiently
abundant to sustain likely growth
in the global energy system for the foreseeable future
. The
doomsayers are again conveying grim messages through (the media). The AIE has long maintained that none
of this is cause for concern." AIE considers all type oils
-

the easy to find and produce "
light sweet" kind
that's likely running out plus potentially huge untapped deposits of heavier oils that will become more
important when it does. With this in mind,
the Middle East doesn't have two
-
thirds of world oil reserves
as many analysts, the industr
y, and US Department of Energy claim
.
It has two
-
thirds of "proved"
cheap oil reserves.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) collects data on all type oils and estimates their
amounts. For the year 2000, the US Department of Energy (DOE) and oil industry estim
ated remaining
"proved" light sweet reserves at slightly over one trillion barrels.
USGS, however, placed "identified"
reserves at 1.1 trillion barrels and "recoverable" reserves at nearly 2.3 trillion or more than double the
industry and DOE amounts. In a
ddition, USGS estimates combined non
-
conventional heavy and tar
sands deposits at around 4.250 trillion barrels

with about 3.6 trillion of them in the two countries with
most of them
-

Canada and Venezuela.


Untapped tar sand reserves are in over 70 coun
tries.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Petroleum Economist magazine

calls itself "the authority on energy." It
says tar (or oil) sands reserves
are huge, they occur in over

70 countries
, and Canada has most of them (around 81%) in four regions:
Athabasca, Wabasca, Cold lake and Peace River in areas covering around 77,000 km.
It estimates
technically recoverable reserves at between 280
-

300 billion barrels

with total non
-
rec
overable (based
on current technology) amounts at between 1.7
-

2.5 trillion barrels
. Other than shale, USGS categorizes
oil as light, heavy, extra
-
heavy and natural bitumen or tar/oil sands.


There are 5.4 trillion barrels of tar sands and heavy oil that
can be tapped.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Another resource assessment comes from
Petroleum Equities
. It's a management consulting firm
specializing in oil and gas expl
oration and production. It
estimates combined heavy oil and tar sands
worldwide reserves at around 5.4 trillion barrels

with 80% of them in the western hemisphere.
For
extra
-
heavy oil alone,

the US Department of Energy (on its web site) estimates
Venezuel
a has 1.36 trillion
barrels
, or 90% of the world total.
That's more than all "proved" world reserves combined

and in
addition to Venezuela's "proved" light sweet resources of around 80 billion barrels that alone ranks it seventh
in the world behind the fiv
e largest Middle East producers and Canada.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


11

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Tar Sands

There are more tar sand reserves than conventional oil reserves. They may offset the oil
peak.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? cont
ext=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

So far, Hubbert was referring to what's called "light sweet" or cheap oil. But he went further as well, yet his
comments have been largely ignored. He mentioned other type oils and estimated:
--

"the oil obtainable from
oil sh
ales in the United States" is one trillion barrels based on current (1956) US Geological Survey figures;
outside the US, he estimated oil shale potential in Brazil at between 300 to 500 billion barrels with
"negligible" amounts present in other countries;

--

the Athabaska tar sands in northeastern Alberta,
Canada are the "largest known deposit(s)....in the world
;" its "extractable oil content....is still not
accurately known, but
current estimates range from about 300 to 500 billion barrels....;"

and
--

"
other
large (nonconventional oil) deposits of uncertain magnitude exist in eastern Venezuela and in
Mesopotamia (Iraq);" these and others like them in the world "might be as much as (another) 800
billion barrels."

Hubbert then stated: "....
the culmination

of world

(oil)
production (of the cheap
variety
)....
should occur within about half a century
(and within) the United States....within the next few
decades."
However: "This does not necessarily imply that the

United States or other parts of the industrial
world will soon become destitute of
liquid (
oil)

and gaseous fuels,
because these can be produced from
other fossil fuels (including tar sands, heavy and extra
-
heavy oils and shale) which occur in much
greater abundance.
" In 1956, his and other estimates o
f their amounts were far below today's figures. More
on that below.


Heavy oils such as tar sands and oil shale can be tapped, dramatically increasing supply.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, NY Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A
&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Since the dawn of the Petroleum Age more than a century ago, the world has consumed more than 1 trillion
barrels of oil. Most of that was of the light, liquid kind that was easy to find, ea
sy to pump and easy to refine.
But
as these light sources are depleted, a growing share of the world’s oil reserves are made out of
heavier oil. Analysts estimate there are about 1 trillion barrels of heavy oil, tar sands, and shale
-
oil
deposits in places

like Canada, Venezuela and the United States that can be turned into liquid fuel by
enhanced recovery methods like steam
-
flooding
.






Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


12

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Arctic Reserves

There are at least 400 billion barrels still untapped in the Arctic.

Lendman 8
(St
ephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

On its web site (arcticoag.com),
the Arctic Oil and Gas Corporation

states it's "an oil exploration venture
company that has filed for the exclusive explo
itation, development, marketing and extraction rights to the oil
and gas resources of the seafloor and subsurface contained within the 'Arctic Claims.' " It
calls the Arctic
"the last giant oil frontier on Earth (with its) vast reserves of untapped oil and

natural gas (that will)
become accessible (when) new deep
-
sea drilling and hydrocarbons production technology (is)
available.
" In addition, it states that a preliminary USGS assessment "suggests
the Arctic seabed may hold
as much as 25 per cent of the wo
rld's undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves (or around 400 billion
barrels of oil alone.)" It further says that Arctic oil source rocks may contain "untold billions of tons of
organic sediments
" and calls the 80 million acre Arctic Ocean Commons Prospe
ct Claim "the world's largest
(potential) material prize."

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


13

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Abiotic Oil

Oil is abiotic


it replenishes itself, oil limits are a hoax.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260,

7
-
2
-
11, AH)

In 1956, Porfir'yev announced their conclusions that even now are largely unacknowledged in the West: that
"
Crude oil and natural petroleum have no intrinsic connection with biological matter

originating near
the surface of the earth."
They're

"primordial materials which have been erupted from great depths,"
and believing their supply is limited is a hoax to keep prices high at times like now. The theory rests
on the abiotic origin of oil.

It's mirror opposite orthodox geology, and, if right,
here's what it means
-

that
available oil is only limited by deep earth organic hydrocarbon constituents at the time of the planet's
formation, and
technological advances will eventually tap them in ultra
-
deep reservoirs and from old
fields believed to be
barren
. The theory defies conventional science, but it's paying off.

It let Soviet
Russia develop huge oil and gas fields in regions previously thought unsuitable.
In the 1990s, it was also
successfully used in the Dnieper
-
Donets Basin between Russia and
Ukraine in areas considered barren.
Sixty
-
one wells were drilled of which 37 (60%) proved out. Engdahl compares this to US wildcat drilling
that produces 90% dry holes.


Russian developments support abiotic origin of oil.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Resear
ch, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

The theory rests on
the abiotic origin of oil
. It's mirror opposite orthodox geology, and, if right, here's what
it means
-

that available oil is only limited by deep earth o
rganic hydrocarbon constituents at the time of the
planet's formation, and technological advances will eventually tap them in ultra
-
deep reservoirs and from old
fields believed to be barren. The theory
defies conventional science, but it's paying off. It
let Soviet
Russia develop huge oil and gas fields in regions previously thought unsuitable. In the 1990s, it was
also successfully used in the Dnieper
-
Donets Basin between Russia and Ukraine in areas considered
barren. Sixty
-
one wells were drilled

of which

37 (60%) proved out. Engdahl compares this to US wildcat
drilling that produces 90% dry holes.
Russia's success was largely unknown in the West until Pentagon
strategists, just recently, considered a disturbing possibility
-

that the country's geophysici
sts might
know "something of profound strategic importance."

If Russian energy know
-
how exceeds the West, it
holds "a strategic trump card of staggering geopolitical import." It also explains why Washington surrounds
the country with military bases and tar
gets it with anti
-
ballistic missiles and radar for offense, not defense. It's
"to cut her pipeline and port links to western Europe, China and the rest of Eurasia" as part of a new
millennium Great Game to control the world's resources
. In the 1990s, Russ
ia extended its technology to
the West, but its offers were spurned and then withdrawn after the US attacked Iraq.
Nonetheless,
ExxonMobil nearly got a $25 billion stake in Yukos Oil that only unraveled after its chief executive Mikhail
Khodorkovsky's arre
st and conviction quashed the deal.
Had it gone through, Exxon would have had
access to the world's largest resource of abiotic
-
trained deep drilling experts, now unavailable to their
scientists and the West.

It now comes down to this. Western technology
is built around fossil fuel
development. If the future is abiotic, as Engdahl and Russian scientists believe, "Moscow holds a massive
energy trump card." It also faces a hostile US and possible new Cold War confrontation for its advantage and
unwillingness

to be accommodative the way Boris Yeltsin was in the 1990s.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


14

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Oil Shale

Abundant reserves of untapped oil shale are present.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11,

AH)

So far, Hubbert was referring to what's called "light sweet" or cheap oil. But he went further as well, yet his
comments have been largely ignored. He mentioned other type oils and estimated:
--

"t
he oil obtainable
from oil shales in the United State
s" is one trillion barrels

based on current (1956) US Geological Survey
figures; outside the US,
he estimated oil shale potential in Brazil at between 300 to 500 billion barrels
with

"negligible"
amounts present in other countries
.


Heavy oils such as tar
sands and oil shale can be tapped, dramatically increasing supply.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, NY Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Since the dawn of the Pet
roleum Age more than a century ago, the world has consumed more than 1 trillion
barrels of oil. Most of that was of the light, liquid kind that was easy to find, easy to pump and easy to refine.
But
as these light sources are depleted, a growing share of t
he world’s oil reserves are made out of
heavier oil. Analysts estimate there are about 1 trillion barrels of heavy oil, tar sands, and shale
-
oil
deposits in places like Canada, Venezuela and the United States that can be turned into liquid fuel by
enhance
d recovery methods like steam
-
flooding
.


There is more oil shale in the US alone than five times the amount of oil in Saudi Arabia.

Denning 5
(Dan, Daily Reckoning & Strategic Investment Editor, 10
-
11, http://dailyreckoning.com/oil
-
shale
-
reserves/, 7
-
3
-
11,

AH)

The destruction of Hurricane Katrina shows the importance of a strategic petroleum reserve, or, more
accurately, a strategic energy reserve. But the SPR in Louisiana only holds about 800 million barrels of
emergency, enough to get the country through

about 90 days of regular oil usage. That’s barely a band
-
aid
for a country that faces a potential energy heart attack. In other words,
the future of oil shale may have
finally arrived
. Extracting oil from shale is no simple task, which is why the reserve
s remain almost
completely undeveloped. But an
emerging new technology promises to unlock the awesome potential of
the oil shale
. “The technical groundwork may be in place for a fundamental shift in oil shale economics,”
the Rand Corporation recently decl
ared. “
Advances in thermally conductive in
-
situ conversion may
enable shale
-
derived oil to be competitive with crude oil at prices below $40 per barrel.

If this becomes
the case, oil shale development may soon occupy a very prominent position in the nation
al energy agenda.”
Estimated U.S. oil shale reserves total an astonishing 1.5 trillion barrels of oil


or more than five times
the stated reserves of Saudi Arabia. This energy bounty is simply too large to ignore any longer
,
assuming that the reserves ar
e economically viable. And yet, oil shale lies far from the radar screen of most
investors.


Oil shale potential is increasing and will offset oil peak.

AAPG 11
(American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 4
-
9, http://emd.aapg.org/technical_areas/oil_
sh
ale.cfm, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

Oil shales ranging from Cambrian to Tertiary in age occur in many parts of the world. Deposits range from
small occurrences of little or no economic value to those of enormous size that occupy thousands of square
miles and contain many

billions of barrels of potentially extractable shale oil.
Total world resources of oil
shale are conservatively estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels
. However, petroleum
-
based crude oil is cheaper
to produce today than shale oil because of the additional co
sts of mining and extracting the energy from oil
shale. Because of these higher costs, only a few deposits of oil shale are currently being exploited in China,
Brazil, and Estonia. However,
with the continuing decline of petroleum supplies, accompanied by

increasing costs of petroleum
-
based products, oil shale presents opportunities for supplying some of
the fossil energy needs of the world in the years ahead
.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


15

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Technology

Technological innovations increase oil outputs.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, N
Y Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

The Kern River oil field
, discovered in 1899, was
revived when Chevron engineers here started
injecting high
-
pressured steam to pump out more oil
.

The field, whose production had slumped to
10,000 barrels a day in the 1960s, now has a daily output of 85,000 barrels
. In Indonesia, Chevron has
applied the same technology to the giant Duri oil field, discovered in 1
941, boosting production there to more
than 200,000 barrels a day, up from 65,000 barrels in the mid
-
1980s. And in Texas, Exxon Mobil expects to
double the amount of oil it extracts from its Means field, which dates back to the 1930s. Exxon, like
Chevron,

will use three
-
dimensional imaging of the underground field and the injection of a gas


in this
case, carbon dioxide


to flush out the oil.
Within the last decade, technology advances have made it
possible to unlock more oil from old fields
, and, at th
e same time, higher oil prices have made it
economical for companies to go after reserves that are harder to reach.
With plenty of oil still left in
familiar locations, forecasts that the world’s reserves are drying out have given way to predictions that
m
ore oil can be found than ever before
.


New tech can uncover abundant untapped resources.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, NY Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

I
n a wide
-
ranging study published in 2000,
the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that ultimately
recoverable resources of conventional oil totaled about 3.3 trillion ba
rrels, of which a third has already
been produced. More recently, Cambridge Energy Researc
h Associates, an energy consultant, estimated that
the total base of recoverable oil was 4.8 trillion barrels
.
That higher estimate



which
Cambridge
Energy says
is likely to grow



reflects how new technology can tap into more resources
.


Peak
-
oil theoris
ts fail to see that new tech can increase oil output.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, NY Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Many oil executives say that these
so
-
called peak
-
oil theorists fail to take into account the way that
sophisticated technology
, combined with higher prices that make searches for new oil more affordable
, are
opening up opportunities to develop supplies. As the industry improves its ability t
o draw new life
from old wells and expands its forays into ever
-
deeper corners of the globe, it is providing a strong
rebuttal in the long
-
running debate over when the world might run out of oil.

Typically, oil companies
can only produce one barrel for ev
ery three they find. Two usually are left behind, either because they are too
hard to pump out or because it would be too expensive to do so.
Going after

these
neglected resources
,
energy experts say
, represents a tremendous opportunity
.


Even if oil is fi
nite, tech makes sure we will never reach peak oil.

Mouawad 7
(Jad, NY Times, 3
-
5, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?ei=5087%
0A&em=&en=115684c949c827ab&ex=1173243600&pagewanted=all, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

“Yes,
there are finite resources in the
ground, but you never get to that point
,” Jeff Hatlen, an engineer
with Chevron, said on a recent tour of the field. In 1978, when he started his career here, operators believed
the field would be abandoned within 15 years. “That’s why
peak oil is a movin
g target,”

Mr. Hatlen said.

Oil is always a function of price and technology
.”

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


16

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

Sustainable Oil


Technology

Current tech prevents optimal oil extraction, new tech will increase production.

Bullis 6
(Kevin, MIT Tech Review, 5
-
3, http://www.technologyrev
iew.com/energy/16767/page1/, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

The amount of accessible oil worldwide could eventually be increased by roughly 30 percent with the
help of new drilling, imaging, and oil extraction technologies
, including the use of microbes, say MIT
researchers.

Theoretically,
this number could be even higher
; in a best
-
case scenario, the amount of oil that
could be produced would double. On average,
using current techniques, about two
-
thirds of the oil in an
oil field gets left behind
, says Richard Sears, a vic
e president at Shell International Exploration and
Production, Houston, TX. "The fundamental problem is basic physics. It's not like the oil is in big tanks. We
produce oil from rock
--

sandstone. The oil is actually held in the very small spaces between t
he grains of
sand. The problem is, when you try to move that oil out of the rocks, because of the size of the spaces, you
end up with a layer of oil coating the insides of the rocks."
About one
-
third of the oil in fields will always
be inaccessible. That l
eaves one
-
third that could be recovered with new technologies
--

which is equal
to the amount that would have already been extracted
.


Electromechanical energy and microbes can be utilized to greatly improve production.

Bullis 6
(Kevin, MIT Tech Review,
5
-
3, http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/16767/page1/, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

Future innovative technologies could include new methods for breaking the adhesion forces that trap oil
inside tiny pores in rock. These include
technologies for focusing acoustic and el
ectromechanical energy
to disrupt the surface forces between oil and rock; new chemicals and even microbes could also help
.
The microbes would work in part by digesting the long hydrocarbons of thick oil into shorter, lighter ones
that flow more readily.
If the new technologies prove out, the
results could be dramatic. "In the U.S.,
there could be as much as 40 billion barrels that could be produced, and global the figures are much,
much more
," Toksöz says. The 40 billion barrels is about four times the am
ount thought to be recoverable
from the controversial plan to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.


New technologies are economically feasible and will increase production.

Lynch 9
(Michael, Former Director for Asian Energy and Security at the C
enter for International Studies at MIT,
8
-
24, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

In the end, perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak
-
oil advocates is that the earth was endowed with
only 2 trillion barrels of “recover
able” oil. Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10
trillion barrels out there.
A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but
improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent


another 2
.5 trillion barrels


in an economically viable way.

And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which
in time we may be able to efficiently tap.
Oil remains abundant, and the price will likely come down
closer to the historical lev
el of $30 a barrel as new supplies come forward
in the deep waters off West
Africa and Latin America, in East Africa, and perhaps in the Bakken oil shale fields of Montana and North
Dakota. But that may not keep the Chicken Littles from convincing policyma
kers in Washington and
elsewhere that oil, being finite, must increase in price. (That’s the logic that led the Carter administration to
create the Synthetic Fuels Corporation, a $3 billion boondoggle that never produced a gallon of useable fuel.)



Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


17

Gemini


Oil Disads Core


***P
eak Oil Yes***



Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


18

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

AT No Peak Coming

Maxwell predicts peak will come in a few years.

Rapier 10
(Robert, Consumer Energy Report, 9
-
13, http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2010/09/13/
maxwell
-
forecasts
-
peak
-
oil
-
in
-
seven
-
years/, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Respected oil anal
yst and oil industry veteran Charles Maxwell

(nicknamed the “Dean of Oil Analysts”)
has forecast peak oil by 2017 or 2018
: His prediction is not so remarkable, as is where he made his
prediction. The prediction was in Forbes, which has often scoffed at the

notion of a near
-
term peak. Some of
Maxwell’s comments:
A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually
occur in the period 2015 to 2020
. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That
would suggest th
at
around 2015, we will hit a near
-
plateau

of production around the world, and we will
hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving
down.
By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction f
or oil output in the world each year

instead of an upward direction, as we are today.


The peak oil theory proved true in the US


a world peak is coming now.

Peakoil.com 10
(5
-
8, http://peakoil.com/what
-
is
-
peak
-
oil/, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

Peak oil theory states: t
hat
any finite resource
, (
including oil
),
will have a beginning, middle, and an end
of production,

and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left. Oil
production typically follows a bell shaped curve when charte
d on a graph, with the peak of production
occurring when approximately half of the oil has been extracted. With some exceptions, this holds true for a
single well, a whole field, an entire region, and presumably the world. The underlying reasons are many a
nd
beyond the scope of this primer, suffice to say that oil becomes more difficult and expensive to extract as a
field ages past the mid
-
point of its life.
In the US for example, oil production grew steadily until 1970
and declined thereafter, regardless
of market price or improved technologies.

In 1956 M. King
Hubbert,

a geologist for Shell Oil,
predicted the peaking of US Oil production would occur in the late
1960s. Although derided by most in the industry he was correct.

He was the first to assert tha
t oil
discovery, and therefore production, would follow a bell shaped curve over its life. After his success in
forecasting the US peak, this analysis became known as the Hubbert's Peak.
The amount of oil discovered
in the US has dropped since the late 19
30s. 40 years later, US oil production had peaked, and has
fallen ever since.

World discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, and has declined since then.

If the 40 year
cycle seen in the US holds true for world oil production, that puts global peak oil prod
uction, right
about now; after which oil becomes less available, and more expensive
. Today we consume around 4
times as much oil as we discover. If we apply Hubbert's Peak to world oil production we estimate that
approximately half of all oil that will be

recovered, has been recovered, and oil production may reach a peak
in the near future, or perhaps already has.


Past peaks prove that due to high oil prices, a peak is coming now.

Hunt 11 (
Tam, Renewable Energy World, Manages Community Renewable Solution
s LLC, 1
-
24,
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/01/the
-
peak
-
oil
-
catastrophe
-
in
-
waiting, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

The
United States continues to slumber while a catastrophe lies in wait
. Increasing numbers of analysts
and
policymakers are warning
of another

super price spike for oil and the likelihood of "
peak oil"

more
generally. Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. The
speed of the decline is a key unknown and if it is relatively fast, the res
ults could be truly dire for economies
around the world.
We saw prices as high as $147 a barrel in mid
-
2008

(the dominant factor for gasoline
prices well over $4 a gallon),
which played

a strong role, perhaps
the dominant role, in the global Great
Recess
ion

--

as high oil prices have in most recessions over the last fifty years. Once the recession hit, oil
demand dropped and prices plummeted as low as $33 a barrel.
Prices

steadily recovered since their low in
early 2009 and
are back to dangerous levels i
n early 2011

(about $90 a barrel). We can expect far
higher prices as the global recovery continues.

An increasing number of analysts are projecting prices as
high or higher than the 2008 peak in the next couple of years.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


19

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

AT No Peak Coming

The oil peak wi
ll come by 2020, the brink is now.

Lendman 8
(Stephen, Global Research, 3
-
6, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? context=va&aid=8260, 7
-
2
-
11, AH)

Campbell believes world output peaked, and in another of his papers, "Peak Oil: an Outlook on Crude Oil
D
epletion," stated:
Peak Oil "is a turning point for Mankind, which will affect everyone
....its discovery
peaked in the 1960s....
gas....will likely peak around 2020
....non
-
conventional oil delays peak only a few
years....we're not facing a re
-
run of the (19
70s) Oil Shocks. They were like....tremors....we now face (an)
earthquake
....
It is not a temporary interruption but the onset of a permanent new condition."

Campbell
also wrote "Understanding Peak Oil" on APSO's web site in which he further says that deba
ting the precise
date of peak oil "misses the point." What really matters is "the long remorseless decline (that's) on the other
side of it.
The transition to decline threatens to be a time of great international tension. Petroleum Man
will be virtually ex
tinct this Century, and Homo sapiens faces a major challenge in adapting to his loss
.
Peak Oil is by all means an important subject." These type comments and more from Campbell's 2005 book
"Oil Crisis" can scare anyone. They also explain today's geopolitic
s, the strategic importance of oil, the
reason its price is so high, and why the US is waging global wars "that won't end in our lifetime."


Even the most conservative estimates foresee the peak by 2020.

ODAC 9
(The Oil Depletion Analysis Center, 11
-
24,
http://www.odac
-
info.org/peak
-
oil
-
primer, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

A growing number of
experts now foresee a permanent downturn in global oil production rates within a
matter of years.

Although past premature forecasts have led many to view warnings of impending oil
sc
arcity with a great deal of scepticism, no fewer than a dozen recent independent analyses, using different
assumptions and demand growth projections, all show global production reaching its natural peak within the
coming decade.
Even the most conservative
of these
, based on what some consider an implausibly high
estimate of the total oil endowment
, forecasts the peak by 2020
.


Over 50 countries have already passed their peak, most others are expected the follow suit.

ODAC 9
(The Oil Depletion Analysis Cent
er, 11
-
24, http://www.odac
-
info.org/peak
-
oil
-
primer, 7
-
3
-
11, AH)

The world will become increasingly dependent on oil from the Middle East as supplies from elsewhere
decline. Already over 50 oil
-
producing countries have passed their peak production, includi
ng the
United States, once the world's largest producer
, which now relies on imported oil for over 60 percent of
its domestic needs.
Most other producing nations are expected to reach their peak within the next few
years.

The only exceptions will be a hand
ful of oil
-
rich Persian Gulf states, which hold about two
-
thirds of
the world's proven reserves. Saudi Arabia alone controls 25 percent of those reserves.


IEA forecasts are wrong


research shows that future oil production is considerable lower
than estim
ated.

U of Sydney 10
(11
-
3, http://www.usyd.edu.au/news/84.html?newsstoryid=5934, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

"
Policy makers

and investors
can no longer assume that ever
-
increasing oil production will fuel

their
forecasts of continual
economic growth
," says Professor Ale
klett.
While IEA forecasts predict steady
growth in oil production until at least 2030,
Professor
Aleklett has found that they assumed
unrealistically high rates of production from undeveloped oilfields
. He believes
we have likely already
reached the age
of peak oil production,
meaning
oil supplies around the world are in decline
. His
research has determined that
2030 will deliver only 75 million barrels of oil per day, a
considerable

difference to IEA's prediction of 100 million
barrels per day.



Gonzaga Debate Institute 2011


20

Gemini


Oil Disads Core

AT N
o Peak Coming

Peak oil is a reality and ignoring it will be disastrous.

Hammond 11
(Jeremy R, Foreign Policy Journal, 2
-
27, http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/ 2011/02/27/its
-
well
-
past
-
time
-
to
-
start
-
taking
-
peak
-
oil
-
seriously/, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

The sky is not
falling. But
Peak Oil is most assuredly upon us, and if we don’t start rethinking our ways
and changing our habits now, the consequences will be disastrous. We can choose our future
. We can
choose to ignore Peak Oil, delude ourselves into thinking that che
ap energy will continue to be available into
the foreseeable future, and continue on present course; or
we can recognize that Peak Oil is a reality, that
the end of the age of cheap oil is nigh, and make the changes required, both on an individual and
soci
etal basis, in order to prepare for what’s coming and have some kind of framework in place to be
able to deal with

it and avert, or at least mitigate,
catastrophe
.


Iraq war proves that peak oil is coming

Hammond 11
(Jeremy R, Foreign Policy Journal, 2
-
27,

http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/ 2011/02/27/its
-
well
-
past
-
time
-
to
-
start
-
taking
-
peak
-
oil
-
seriously/, 7
-
6
-
11, AH)

The U.S. government isn’t

exactly
naïve about it
, either,
despite the role of the government in helping to
exclude the topic of Peak Oil fr
om mainstream discourse
. Former Vice President and Halliburton CEO
Richard “The good Lord didn’t see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratic regimes friendly to
the United States” Cheney was fully in the know about Peak Oil and its consequen
ces when he headed up
the
Bush administration’s energy task force
, documents from which
, released

via a Freedom of Information
Act lawsuit, included
maps of Iraq’s oil fields and lists of potential contracts. In violation of
international law and under man
ufactured pretenses, the U.S. invaded and occupied Iraq, and, in a
further violation of international law, privatized its economy so as to free up its oil for exploitation by
foreign oil companies. The oil wars have already begun, yet another manifestation

of the reality of
Peak Oil
. Yet denial reigns king, with myths like that there was an “intelligence failure” leading up to the
invasion of Iraq serving to veil the grim reality behind a mask of obfuscation.


We are nearing the peak


oil fields are in dec
line and new finds are not keeping up.