USA Solar Market

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Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
1

USA Solar Market

Solar Market Business
Management


SS ‘12

Jesús

Martínez

Cantú



Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
2

Agenda


Overview (Key facts)



Electricity Energy Sector

Infrastructure



Electricity Prices and Solar
radiation



Levelized Cost of Electricity



Grid Parity Projection



Political Framework



Conclusion Solar Market

conosurconsultores.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
3

Overview

(Key
facts
)


Federal constitutional republic
(50 States and 1
Federal district)


9.8 million km^
2

area (25 times Germany) and 312 million people (
3
rd

)


GDP 2011; US$ 15.1 trill. (
1
st
), China US$ 7 trill. (
2
nd
)
. (1 US$ = 0.79
Eur
)


Energy Consumption 2011; 97.5 quad. BTU

28.5
PWh

(10^15)

(1
st

), more than 7 times Germany consumption
(*) Data 2010
wikipedia


Total
energy

consumption

increases

12 %
by

2035. (0.5% per
year
)

US EIA



http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/
major_energy_sources_and_users.cfm

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/r
enewable_electricity.cfm

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
4

Electricity Energy Sector infrastructure


Differents

sources to generate electricity

No national Grid to transmission


3 grids operating in 48 contiguous states, 1 grid in Alaska and 1 grid in Hawaii.


In addition throughout the year consumption varies, therefore prices vary according location.

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief
/power_grid.cfm

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/
detail.cfm?id=4270

http://www.eia.gov/state/

(*) 2010

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
5

Electricity prices 2011
Avg

Vs. Radiation

(1 US$ = 0.79
Eur
)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
6

Levelized

cost of Electricity Solar System


Assumptions

from

RNEL 2011
study
.
(c
-
Si Modules)
http://www.osti.gov/bridge



25 % overnight
capital
cost

reduction

due

modules
price

vs.
2011
study
.
http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcos
ts/



LCOE NREL
simple
calculator

used
.
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tec
h_lcoe.html

(1 US$ = 0.79
Eur
)

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
7

Grid

Parity

is

coming


(1 US$ = 0.79
Eur
)

Assuming 10 % system price reduction by learning curve in PV. Approx. yearly trend
increases electricity price by 2.65 % Residential, 1.89% Industrial and 0.5 % Utility.

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
8

Political

Framework


Adoption of electric retail choice
programs that allow end
-
use
customers to buy electricity from
competitive retail suppliers.



State

Incentives: California Solar
Initiative
.
(http://www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov/csi/index.php
)



States Policies


SREC’s on
states with
Renewable Portfolio
Standard.



Federal Incentives: Business
Energy Investment Tax Credit
(ITC) . 30 % tax credit from
renewable equipment

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/
detail.cfm?id=6250

http://dsireusa.org

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
9

Projection PV and CSP (Utility)

PV
CSP
Country
Status
Expected Completion
Nominal power
(Capacity MW)
Plants
Nominal power
(Capacity MW)
Plants
Total Nominal
Nominal power
(Capacity MW)
Plants
USA
Operating
Operating
423
9
508
8
930
17
Total Operating
423
9
508
8
930
17
Under Construction
2012
50
1
50
1
2013
628
3
650
2
1,278
5
2014
600
1
360
2
960
3
2015
1,320
2
1,320
2
Total Under Construction
2,598
7
1,010
4
3,608
11
Announced
2012
223
3
223
3
2013
576
5
576
5
2014
1,418
5
1,418
5
2015
1,560
2
1,560
2
2016
961
3
961
3
2025
2,700
1
2,700
1
No Date
1,799
4
5,099
25
6,898
29
Total Announced
9,237
23
5,099
25
14,336
48
Total general
12,258
39
6,617
37
18,874
76
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.p
df

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.p
df

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.p
df

www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
10

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
Sunshot

iniative


Reducing Solar Technology Costs


Increasing PV solar cell efficiency,


Reducing production costs


Opening new markets for solar energy



Reducing Solar Grid Integration Costs


Grid

Planning


Reliability



Accelerating Deployment solar technologies

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
11

Conclusion


US Solar Market is increasing


Fast due approaching grid parity.


RPS in states and federal incentives facilitate
deployment.



Potential

to

be

biggest

solar
market

in
the

world
.
(
Resources

and
demand
).



If

trends

prevail

the

percentage

of Solar
plants

generating

electricity

at
utility
-
scale

will

be

higher

than

16 % as
projected

in 2035
by

US EIA.
(http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf
)



Better

estimation

of LCOE
should

be

customized

to

the

location
. (
state

characteristics
, CP, more
detailed

overnight
cost
,
wages
, etc.)


Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
12

laiaatienza.com

Solar Markets and Business Management| SS 2012 USA Solar
Mar
ket | Jesus Martínez
13

References


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)


http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cfm?t=182


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_and_production


http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/power_grid.cfm


http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/


http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4270


http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html


http://www.osti.gov/bridge


http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser


http://dsireusa.org/


http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/#release=EARLY2012&subject=2
-
EARLY2012&table=2
-
EARLY2012&region=1
-
0&cases=early2012
-
d121011b


http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51847.pdf


http://205.254.135.7/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/0383er(2012).pdf


http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/


http://www.gosolarcalifornia.org/csi/index.php