Technology Roadmaps and Technology Insertion

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Technology Roadmaps and Technology
Insertion

February 3, 2000

Presented By:

Angie Kelic

sly@mit.edu

Research Sponsored By The Lean Aerospace Initiative

Product Development Focus Team

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©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Outline


Motivation


Technology Insertion


Key Questions


Hypothesis


Technology Roadmaps Study


Theoretical Basis


Preliminary Results


Next Steps

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Motivation


The problem


Long product development timelines


Obsolescence in newly operational systems


Difficulty in upgrade programs



Varying technology timescales (clockspeeds)


Slower developing (example: airframe)


Faster developing (example: electronics)





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What We Do Know About
Technology Insertion

Charted territory:


Cost/benefit analyses


NASA Technology Insertion Milestones and
Technology Readiness Levels


Where the problems lie:


Technologies not developed with current
application in mind


Unexpected impacts on other parts of the system


No well established technology insertion process


Incorrect assessment of technology “readiness”



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Key Questions


How can knowledge of new technology be
brought to bear on the product development
process?


How can technology readiness be determined
effectively and consistently?


How does one determine the side effects of
introducing new technology?


“Our technology roadmaps tell us when to insert
new technology”



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Hypothesis

Technology roadmaps can be used to effectively
predict technology performance and manage
technology insertion

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©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Technology Roadmaps Study



Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?


How are roadmaps developed and by whom?


Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?


Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?


Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?




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Theoretical Basis


Clockspeed
-

Fine


“fruit flies”



supply chain management



Technology forecasting
-

Irvine and Martin


Three levels of forecasting in industry


macro
-
level: broad trends, typically conducted by
government agencies
-

DoD


sector
-
level forecasts: typically conducted by industrial
associations, or multi
-
client consultancy organizations
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Sematech, NCAT, AIAA, IEEE


specific research forecasts relating to particular
technologies or new product lines
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companies

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Do Roadmaps Exist?


YES!!


Two types:


investment direction roadmaps


how to spend research dollars


detailed technology roadmaps


predicting technology characteristics


combination of Delphi method and historical trend analysis



Varying levels of implementation

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©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Technology Roadmaps Study



Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?


How are roadmaps developed and by whom?


Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?


Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?


Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?




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Detailed Technology Roadmaps


Experts on the technology make the roadmap


Information from array of sources


trade journals


information from suppliers


R&D


DoD, trade organization roadmaps


Review


peers, suppliers, upper management

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Roadmapping Process

Information

1. Gather

2. Develop

3.Review

4. Refine

5. Distribute

6. Use?

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©2000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Technology Roadmaps Study



Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?


How are roadmaps developed and by whom?


Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?


Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?


Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?




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Are They Effective in
Prediction?


Gather old roadmaps


various technologies


roadmaps and updates


Examine variance in predictions


Examine actual state of the art for predicted year


Example:

Semiconductor Industry Association Roadmaps

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SIA Roadmaps for
Semiconductors

Power Supply Voltage
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
2018
1994
1997
1998
1999
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Next Steps


Validate and refine the process description


Gather more roadmap data


Determine accuracy


Examine variance and attempt a correlation with
technology characteristics




Participants to date: HP, Raytheon, ACC, Textron,
AlliedSignal, Boeing, Sematech, Northrop
-
Grumman, Saab

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Technology Roadmaps Study



Do roadmaps even exist in most cases?


How are roadmaps developed and by whom?


Are technology roadmaps and technology
forecasting accurate?


Are there factors that are key to accuracy and
what are they?


Are roadmaps actually used or are they simply
developed?