An indicator for large earthquakes - Seismic quiescence

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1 Δεκ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

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An indicator for large earthquakes
-

Seismic quiescence


Yi
-
Xuan Wu


Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan
320.


ABSTRACT



Hainzl

et al. [1999] prop
osed a 2
-
D modified string
-
block model, they introduce a
crust relaxatio
n process in a continuous cellular automaton version of the Burridge and
Knopoff [1967] model. The most important model parameters are the level of
conservation and the ratio of the crust relaxation time to the tectonic reloading time. The
model reproduces

many phenomena
that also can be observed in real fault system; that is
,
the
various

results of the simulation of the model agree with the phenomena observed
from real earthquake system. The principal new result obtained wit
h this model is the
spatiotempor
al clustering of events

exhibiting several characteristics of earthquakes in
nature. Large events are followed by aftershock sequences obeying the Omori [1894] law
and preceded by localized foreshocks, which are initiated after a time period of seismic
qui
escence. From the model, a suc
cessful simulation about that t
he stronger and the
longer the duration of this period, the

larger on average is the subsequent mainshock

may
confirm that seismic quiescence can be an indicator for large earthquakes
.


REFERENCE


Hainzl, S., G. Zöller
, and J. Kurths, Seismic quies
cence as an indica
tor for large
earthquakes in a
system of self
-
organized criticality,
Geophys. Res. Lett.,

27, 597

600,
2000.

Hainzl, S., G. Z
ö
ller, and
J. Kurths, Similar power laws
for foreshock and a
ftershock
sequences in a spring
-
block model for earthquakes,
J. Geophys. Res.,

104,
7243
-
7254,
1999.