120417 WG2.Task4.MethodStatement_16042012x

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marta.olazabal


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WG2

-

Task 4
Development of influence diagrams to represent the propagation of

feedbacks

through
urban systems and the ways in which these can be modified through adaptation and mitigation.



Method Statement:


Brief description:
The aim of this task is
to develop influence diagrams
1

to represent the feedbacks that
can be found among the elements of the urban system and the ways these feedbacks can be modified
through actions of adaptation or mitigation of climate change.


A simple

example of this
can be the following situation:


The migration from rural to urban areas results in a population growth within the city. The local
authority decides to urbanize a periurban area. No
public equipments

are planned together with
the new urban planning.

1.

Scal
e (of the driving force)
: regional/local

2.

Type of driving force
:
Migratory event from rural to urban area / Population growth

/
H
ousing demand increase

3.

Boost event
:
New urban planning

4.

Effects:


Effect 1

Level 1 (direct)

Transport demand
increase

Level 2
(indirect)

Traffic

Level 3 (indirect)

Air pollution

increase

Level 4

(indirect)

Health problems

5.

Responses (general vs. adaptation & mitigation related):



Response 1

Response 2

Response 3

Response 4

Level 1 (direct)

Improve capacity of
Transport
infrastructures

Public Transport

Reactivate
economic activity
in the
neighbourhood

Increase
vegetation
cover

Level 2 (indirect)

Increase of sealed
land

….





Level 3 (indirect)

Air pollution

Air pollution

....

....



This way it can be observed that although a new urban planning necessarily brings direct effects such as
mobility demand increase, the probability of the effects can be minimized depending on the combination
of responses. That is, feedbacks can be modified

through actions of adaptation and mitigation.


FCM (Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping
,

http://www.fcmappers.net/

)
is used to map the perception
of a
comple problem
of different
participants, using their own maps to build
a common bigger map (or
influence diagram)
. An example is shown in the following figure:





1

An
influence diagram

is a way of describing the dependencies among aleatory variables and decisions. An
influence diagram can be used to visualize the probabilistic dependencies in a decision analysis and to specify the
states of information for which independencies can be as
sumed to exist. It forms a bridge between qualitative
description and quantitative specification. (Howard and Matheson 2005.
Influence Diagrams.
Decision Analysis Vol.
2, No. 3, September 2005, pp. 127

143)

marta.olazabal


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See
http://www.fcmappers.net/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=72:peyresq
-
2009
-
alter
-
net
-
summer
-
school&catid=38:past
-
projects&Itemid=37


If we decide to use this tool
, I
suggest

following these steps:

# step

Who

When

1.

To jointly formulate a specific question.
For
example: How
new urbanization

affects urban
management, planning and quality of life and
how this might be changed (improved or not)
through adaptation and mitigation actions?

ALL

Before Rome

2.

To choose a
specific case study

inside

our
case study

(E.g. A(n) (existing) specific new
urbanization in
X

city)

ALL

Before Rome

3.

Each of us will draw a mind map

of what is
usually happening in this case study
.
E.g.


ALL

Ideas before
Rome


To finish in

Rome?

4.

Use FCM

to

put all these expert perceptions

(should be 12

maps
?)

in one map

Marta

Could we do a
tentative map in
Rome?

5.

Analyse results

/ Discussion

Marta/ALL

….



Note that all this work does not involve data gathering but expert knowledge o
n

one city reality.

marta.olazabal


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This could lead to the following possibilities (to be discussed in Rome):

1.

We can extend the analysis and draw a couple of scenarios (using FCM)

2.

Case studies short publication

3.

We encourage more Cost members to join and send individual maps

4.

We use this for t
he Cities COOKbook.