Washington Perspective - Tech Horizons

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19 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 9 μήνες)

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Headquarters U.S. Air Force

A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology
During 2010
-
2030

Technology Horizons:

1

26 August 2010

Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm

Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force

Air Force Pentagon (4E130)

Washington, D.C.

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

2

The Air Force is Critically Dependent on
Science & Technology Advances

Powered flight

Gas turbine engine

Aerial refueling

Rocket flight

Supersonic flow

Night attack

High
-
speed flight

Long
-
range radar

Communications

ICBMs

Space ISR

5th
-
gen fighters

Global positioning

Precision strike

Space launch

Stealth / LO

Computer simulations

Directed energy

High
-
power lasers

Hypersonics

Blended wing
-
body

Long
-
endurance ISR

Unmanned systems

Cyber operations

3

The Path from Science and Technology

to New Air Force Capabilities

TRL 1:

Basic principles observed and reported

TRL 2:

Technology concept and/or application formulated

TRL 3:

Analytical or experimental proof of concept

TRL 4:

Component validation in laboratory environment

TRL 5:

Component validation in relevant environment

TRL 6: System/subsystem demonstration in relevant environment

TRL 7:

System prototype demonstration in an operational environment

TRL 8:

Actual system completed and qualified through test and demo

TRL 9:

Actual system proven through successful mission operations

Technology Readiness Level (TRL): Definitions

Basic

Research

Applied

Research

Advanced
Technology
Development

Concept
Refinement

Advanced

Development

System

Development &
Demonstration

Production,
Fielding,
Sustainment

Budget Activity 1

(6.1)

Budget Activity 2

(6.2)

Budget Activity 3

(6.3)

Budget Activity 4

BA 5

BA 6,7

Materiel Development

Decision (MDD)

Milestone A

Milestone B

Milestone C

Research
& Development

Acquisition

Universities

Air Force Research
Laboratory


Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP)


Initial Operational Test & Eval. (IOT&E)


Full Rate Production (FRP)


Initial Operational Capability (IOC)


Field and Sustain

4

What New S&T Advances Will Create the
Next Generation of USAF Capabilities?

Maintaining superior capabilities over its adversaries requires the Air Force to continually
seek new science and technology advances and integrate these into
fieldable

systems

5

U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”

SecAF

/ CSAF Tasking Letter

Terms of Reference (TOR)

6

Overview of Air Force S&T Visions

Toward New
Horizons

(1945)

Project

Forecast

(1964)

New World

Vistas

(1995)

Technology

Horizons

(2010)

1

3

6

7

Woods Hole

Summer Study

(1958)

New

Horizons II

(1975)

Project

Forecast II

(1986)

2

4

5

1940s

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010+

Low
-
impact studies

High
-
impact studies


“Technology Horizons” is the next in a succession of major S&T
vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level to
define the key Air Force S&T investments over the next decade

10+10 Technology
-
to
-
Capability Process

7


10+10 Technology
-
to
-
Capability” process gives a deductive 20
-
year horizon view

U.S.

Counter
-

Capabilities

Potential

Adversary

Capabilities

STEP 1

10
-
Years
-
Forward

Science & Technology

Projection

10
-
Years
-
Forward

Capabilities

Projection

STEP 2

10
-
Years
-
Back

Science & Technology

Investment Need

STEP 4

10
-
Years
-
Back

Counter
-
Capability

Technology Need

STEP 3

Capabilities

Today

(2010)

S&T

Advances

in 10 Years

(2020)

Resulting

Capabilities

in 20 Years

(2030)

Future U.S.

Capabilities

Air

Space

Cyber

Cross
-
Domain

Air

Space

Cyber

Cross
-
Domain

8

Broad Range of Inputs to Study


Perspectives from participants in “Technology Horizons” working
groups: Air, Space, Cyber, and Cross
-
Domain groups


Representation on working groups from AFRL, MAJCOMs, NASIC,
FFRDCs, industry, and academia


Numerous Air Force operational perspectives from briefings and
site visits, including AFMC, ACC, AFSPC, AMC and AFSOC


Site visits, briefings, and discussions with organizations across
Air Force, DoD, federal agencies, FFRDCs, national laboratories,
and industry


Site visits to in
-
theater operational bases


Additional insights from S&T Cell at Air Force Futures Game 09
including US, CAN, UK and AUS members


Studies and reports related to defense science, including Air Force
Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and Defense Science Board (DSB)


Over 200 additional papers, reports, briefings and other sources

9

“Technology Horizons” Study Phases

Working

Phase 2

Air, Space, Cyber

Domain Working

Groups

Working

Phase 3

Cross
-
Domain

Working

Group

Working

Phase 4

Findings,

Conclusions &

Recommendations

“Technology Horizons”

Report and
Outbrief

Mar 09

Feb 2010

Planning

Phase 1

Objectives,

Tasking, and

Organization,


Jun 09

Oct 09

Dec 09

Implementation

Phase 5

Dissemination of


Results and

Implementation

2010+

10

Air Force S&T Vision for 2010
-
2030

from “Technology Horizons”

Overarching Themes for Vectoring

Air Force S&T During 2010
-
2030

11

Process to Identify Potential Capability
Areas and Key Technology Areas

12

Potential Capability Areas (1/2)

PCA1:

Inherently Intrusion
-
Resilient Cyber Systems

PCA2:

Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments

PCA3:

Decision
-
Quality Prediction of Behavior

PCA4:

Augmentation of Human Performance

PCA5:

Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training

PCA6:

Adaptive Flexibly
-
Autonomous Systems

PCA7:

Frequency
-
Agile Spectrum Utilization

PCA8:

Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations

PCA9:

Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS
-
Denied Environments

PCA10:

Next
-
Generation High
-
Bandwidth Secure Communications

PCA11:

Persistent Near
-
Space Communications Relays

PCA12:

Processing
-
Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

PCA13:

High
-
Altitude Long
-
Endurance ISR Airships

PCA14:

Prompt Theater
-
Range ISR/Strike Systems

PCA15:

Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely
-
Piloted Systems

13

Potential Capability Areas (2/2)

PCA16:

Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply

PCA17:

Energy
-
Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters

PCA18:

Fuel
-
Efficient Hybrid Wing
-
Body Aircraft

PCA19:

Next
-
Generation High
-
Efficiency Turbine Engines

PCA20:

Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems

PCA21:

Penetrating Persistent Long
-
Range Strike

PCA22:

High
-
Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile

PCA23:

Hyperprecision Low
-
Collateral Damage Munitions

PCA24:

Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense

PCA25:

Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions

PCA26:

Reusable Airbreathing Access
-
to
-
Space Launch

PCA27:

Rapidly Composable Small Satellites

PCA28:

Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems

PCA29:

Persistent Space Situational Awareness

PCA30:

Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction

14

15

Mapping Potential Capability Areas to
Air Force Service Core Functions

Potential Capability Areas (PCA1
-
PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)

Dramatically Increased Use of Highly
Adaptable Autonomous Systems


Capability increases, manpower efficiencies,
and cost reductions are possible through far
greater use of autonomous systems


Dramatic in degree of autonomy and range of
systems and processes where autonomous
reasoning and control can be applied


Adaptive autonomy can offer time
-
domain
operational advantages over adversaries
using human planning and decision loops


S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly
adaptible autonomous systems is a key to
enabling this transformation


Potential adversaries may gain benefits from
fielding such systems without any burden of
establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”


As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such
autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead
in developing the underlying S&T basis

16

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release


Natural human capacities are becoming
increasingly mismatched to data volumes,
processing capabilities, and decision speeds
that are offered or demanded by technology


S&T to augment human performance will be
needed to gain benefits of new technologies


May come from increaed use of autonomous
systems, improved man
-
machine interfaces,
or direct augmentation of humans

Augmentation of Human Performance
to Better Match Users with Technology

17

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Technologies to Enable Freedom of
Operations in Contested Environments


S&T advances are needed in three key areas
to enable increased freedom of operations in
contested or denied environments


Basic and early applied research are needed
to support development of these capabilities


Technologies for increased cyber resilience


e.g., massive virtualization, highly
polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors


Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in
GPS
-
denied environments


e.g., cold
-
atom (Bose
-
Einstein condensate)
INS systems, chip
-
scale atomic clocks


Technologies to support dominance in
electromagnetic spectrum warfare


e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral
mutability, advanced RF apertures

18

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Processing
-
Enabled Intelligent Sensors

Fractionated Composable UAV Systems

Processing
-
Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

Fractionated Survivable Remote
-
Piloted Systems


Current massive data flow from ISR platforms
is created tremendous PED manpower need


Full
-
motion video (FMV) analysis is growing;
even more Gorgon State and ARGUS
-
IS


Technologies needed to enable cueing
-
level
processing before data leaves the sensor


UAV system fractionation is a relatively new
architecture enabled by technology advances


Allows complete system to be separated into
functional elements cooperating as a system


Common platform having element
-
specific
payload enabled lower cost and attritability


Permits mission
-
specific composition of
systems from lower
-
cost common elements


Low levels of redundancy among elements
dramatically increases system survivability

19

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites

PCA19: Next
-
Generation High
-
Efficiency Turbine Engines

Additional Potential Capability Areas
(PCAs) in “Technology Horizons”

PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense

PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness

20

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

21

Technology Areas Identified for Each
Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)


Ad hoc networks


Virtual machine architectures


Agile hypervisors


Polymorphic networks


Agile networks


Pseudorandom network recomposition


Laser communications


Secure RF links


Frequency
-
agile RF systems


Spectral mutability


Dynamic spectrum access


Quantum key distribution


Complex adaptive distributed networks


Complex adaptive systems


Complex system dynamics


V&V for complex adaptive systems


PCA1: Inherently Intrusion
-
Resilient Cyber Systems


A
utonomous systems


A
utonomous reasoning


R
esilient autonomy


C
ollaborative/cooperative control


D
ecision support tools


A
utomated software generation


D
istributed sensing networks


S
ensor data fusion


S
ignal identification and recognition


C
yber offense


C
yber defense


C
yber resilience


A
dvanced computing architectures


C
omplex environment visualization


M
assive analytics


A
utomated reasoning and learning

Combined Set of Technology Areas
Identified Across all 30 PCAs (1/2)


Advanced aerodynamic configurations


Aerodynamic experimental evaluation


Cold
-
atom INS


Chip
-
scale atomic clocks


Advanced TPS materials


Scramjet propulsion systems


Ad hoc networks


Polymorphic networks


Virtual machine architectures


Agile hypervisors


Agile networks


Pseudorandom network recomposition


Complex adaptive distributed networks


Modular small
-
sat components


Distributed small
-
sat architectures


Fractionated small
-
sat architectures


Laser communications


Short
-
range secure RF communications


Frequency
-
agile RF systems


Spectral mutability


Dynamic spectrum access


Quantum key distribution


Complex adaptive systems


Complex system dynamics


V&V for complex adaptive systems


Solid
-
state lasers


Fiber lasers


Semiconductor lasers


Beam control


Directed energy effects


Directed energy protection


High
-
power microwaves


Quantum computing


Space weather


Orbital environment characterization


Satellite drag modeling


Space situational awareness


Lightweight multi
-
functional structures


Advanced composite fabrication


Structural modeling and simulation


Multi
-
scale simulation technologies


Coupled multi
-
physics simulations


Validation support to simulations


Autonomous systems


Autonomous reasoning


Resilient autonomy


Collaborative/cooperative control


Autonomous mission planning


Embedded diagnostics


Health monitoring and prognosis


Decision support tools


Automated software generation


High
-
altitude airships


Passive radar


Advanced RF apertures


Secure RF links

22


Lightweight materials


Advanced composites


Composites sustainment


Optical and infrared materials


RF and electronic materials


Metamaterials


Self
-
healing materials


Nanomaterials


Nondestructive evaluation


Material
-
specific manufacturing


Hydrocarbon boost engine


Spacecraft propulsion


Electric propulsion


Energy storage


High
-
temperature electronics


Radiation hardened electronics


Alternate fuels


System
-
level thermal management M&S


Thermal management components


Three
-
stream engine architectures


High
-
temperature fuel technologies


High
-
OPR compressors


Engine component testing


Advanced and interturbine burners


Efficient bleedless inlets



Serpentine nozzles


High
-
speed turbines


RF electronic warfare


EO/IR sensing


IR signature suppression


Distributed sensing networks


Integrated sensing and processing


Sensor
-
based processing


Signal identification and recognition


Information fusion and understanding


Cyber offense


Cyber defense


Cyber resilience


Advanced computing architectures


Biological signatures


Human behavior modeling


Cultural behavior modeling


Social network modeling


Behavior prediction and anticipation


Influence measures


Cognitive modeling


Complex environment visualization


Massive analytics


Automated reasoning and learning


Cognitive performance augmentation


Physical performance augmentation


Human
-
machine interfaces


High
-
temperature materials


High
-
altitude materials

Combined Set of Technology Areas
Identified Across all 30 PCAs (2/2)

23

High
-
Altitude Long
-
Endurance (HALE)
Air Vehicle Systems


New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE)
and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years


Delicate lightweight structures can survive
low
-
altitude winds if launch can be chosen


Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight
batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems


Large airships containing football field size
radars give extreme resolution/persistence

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept

24

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Airship
-
Based HALE ISR Systems &
Partially
-
Buoyant Cargo Airlifters


HALE airship platforms are being examined for
numerous ISR and comm relay applications


Current DoD HALE Airship programs include:


Long
-
Endurance Multi
-
INT Vehicle (LEMV)


HALE Demonstrator (HALE
-
D)


Blue Devil (Polar 400 airship + King Air A
-
90)


Integrated Sensor is Structure (ISIS)


Hybrid airships achieve partial lift from buoyancy
and part aerodynamically from forward flight

Blue Devil “Polar 400”

DARPA “ISIS”

High
-
Altitude Long
-
Endurance Demo HALE
-
D

Examples of Current DoD

HALE Airship Programs

LMCO “Project 791”

25

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Hybrid Wing
-
Body (HWB) Aircraft for
Higher Aerodynamic Fuel Efficiency


Hybrid wing
-
body with blended juncture has
greater fuel efficiency than tube
-
and
-
wing


Body provides significant fraction of total lift;
resulting volumetric efficiency is improved


Potential Air Force uses as airborne tanker

or as cargo transport aircraft


Fabrication of pressurized body sections is
enabled by PRSEUS technology


X
-
48B flight tests (NASA / AFRL / Boeing)
have examined aerodynamic performance

26

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Scramjet Engine Development and
Scale
-
Up in Robust Scramjet Program

Ground Demo Engine (GDE
-
2)

SJX61
-
1 Development Engine

SJX61
-
2 Flight Clearance Engine


Hydrocarbon
-
fueled dual
-
mode ram/scramjet
combustor allows operation over Mach range


Thermal management, ignition,
flameholding


GDE
-
1 was flight weight hydrocarbon fuel
-
cooled but with open
-
loop fuel system


GDE
-
2 was closed
-
loop hydrocarbon fuel
-
cooled system intended for NASA X
-
43C


SJX61
-
1,2 were closed
-
loop HC fuel
-
cooled
development/clearance engines for X
-
51A

27

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Hypersonic Global ISR Vehicles


JP
-
fueled scramjet propulsion system could potentially enable a medium
-
size

rapid
-
response ISR vehicle having operationally relevant range capability


Mach 6 limit avoids complex thermal management penalties at higher Mach


Vertical takeoff / horizontal landing (VTHL) enables single
-
stage rocket
-
based
combined
-
cycle (RBCC) system having 5000 nmi range with 2000 lbs payload


Integral rocket boost to Mach 3.5 with ram
-
scram acceleration to Mach 6


Time
-
responsive missions at long ranges while maintaining runway landings

Notional Mach 6 single
-
stage reusable VTHL ISR vehicle with 5000 nmi range (Astrox)

28

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Airbreathing Two
-
Stage
-
to
-
Orbit
(TSTO) Access to Space Vehicles


Airbreathing

systems offer enormous advantages
for TSTO access
-
to
-
space; reusable space access
with aircraft
-
like operations


Air Force / NASA conducting joint configuration
option assessments using Level 1 & 2 analyses


Reusable rockets (RR), turbine
-
based (TBCC) and
rocket
-
based (RBCC) combined cycles

29

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

Laser
-
Based Directed Energy Systems
for Low Collateral Damage Strike


Laser
-
based directed energy systems approaching
operationally useful power, size, and beam quality


Distinction between tactical DE (e.g., ATL in C
-
130)
vs. strategic DE (e.g., ABL in B747)


Tactical
-
scale systems enabled ultra
-
low collateral
damage strike and airborne self
-
defense


Technology path from COIL lasers to bulk solid
state (e.g., HELLADS) to fiber lasers to DPALs


Demonstration path leads to airborne test (ELLA)

AFRL Fiber Laser
Testbed

AFRL Rubidium DPAL Experiment

2012

2017

2010

General


Atomics

Textron

Unit Cells

North
Oscura

Peak (NOP)

White Sands Missile Range

ELLA Flight Demonstration

30

26 August 2010

AFA Technology Symposium 2010

Cleared for Public Release

31

“Grand Challenges” for Air Force S&T

#1:
Inherently Intrusion
-
Resilient Cyber Networks


A
utonomous scalable technologies enabling large, nonsecure networks to
be inherently resilient to attacks entering through network or application
layers, and to attacks that pass through these layers

#2:
Trusted Highly
-
Autonomous Decision
-
Making Systems


Broad principles, theoretical constructs, and algorithmic embodiments

for autonomous decision
-
making in applications where inherent decision
time scales far exceed human capacity

#3:
Fractionated, Composable, Survivable, Autonomous Systems


Survivable system architecture based on fractionation with redundancy
using collaborative control and adapative autonomous mission planning

#4:
Hyper
-
Precision Aerial Delivery in Difficult Environments


Low
-
cost, air
-
dropped, autonomously guided, precise delivery under GPS
-
denial for altitudes and winds representative of steep mountainous terrain

Main Take
-
Away Points


Air Force S&T priorities span across a
wide range of technical areas


Technology Horizons gives the vision

for key USAF S&T over next decade


Growing technology areas include
dramatically increased use of highly
adaptable autonomous systems


Fractionated composable architectures
enable a new approach for high/low
missions and low cost survivability


Technologies for reducing fuel costs will
become increasingly important


e.g., airships, HWB, VAATE programs


“Technology Horizons” is already being
used to increase focus of Air Force S&T

32

33

Questions / Discussion