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Chapter 9

Planning and

Decision Aids

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Learning Objectives


Explain knowledge management and how it creates
value for organizations.


Describe the basic features of the Delphi technique,
simulation, and scenario forecasting aids.


Use Osborn’s creativity model to stimulate adaptive
and innovative decisions.


Apply three quality management decision and
planning aids: benchmarking, the Deming cycle, and
the balanced scorecard model.

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Fostering Knowledge Management


Knowledge management (KM)
involves
recognizing, generating, documenting,
distributing, and transferring between persons
useful to improve organizational effectiveness.


KM is generally viewed as consisting of three
main components:


Explicit Knowledge


Tacit Knowledge


Enabling Technologies

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Knowledge Management Drivers


Knowledge is becoming more valuable than
physical or financial assets, or even natural
resources.


Organizations that are reevaluating knowledge
strategies are finding shortcomings such as:


Productivity and opportunity loss


Information overload


Knowledge attrition


Reinventing the wheel

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Knowledge Management Targets


The application of KM has three natural
targets:


an organization’s teams


customers


workforce

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Enabling Technology


Technology provides the foundation for solutions that
automate sharing of knowledge and fostering innovation.


Choosing technologies involve addressing two

critical
issues:


technologies should deliver only relevant


information, but quickly from


every feasible source


technologies need to comprise


a variety of devices, from telephone


to laptop computers

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Enabling Culture


Culture is often the greatest barrier to successful
implementation of KM.


To help create a sense of trust and positive cultural
response in the InTouch service at SchlumbergerSema
the following implementation was used::


A knowledge champion was assigned as a focal point


Extensive input from the field employees was sought


A knowledge
-
sharing culture was developed

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Fostering Forecasts


Forecasting
involves projecting or estimating
future events or conditions in an organization’s
environment.


Common forecasting pitfalls include:


listening to the media


assuming that things are


going to return the way


they used to be


hearsay


tunnel vision

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9

Delphi Technique


The
Delphi technique
is a forecasting aid based on a
consensus of a panel of experts.


The heart of the Delphi technique is a series of
questionnaires.


The Delphi technique typically involves at least three
phases.


A questionnaire is sent to a group of experts


A summary of the first phase is prepared


A summary of the second phase is prepared


Three phases are recommended; however, experts tend
to drop out after the third phase because of time
constraints.

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Simulation


A
simulation
is a representation of a real
system.


A simulation


imitates something real, but


is not real itself, and


can be altered by its users


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Examples of Business Simulation

(adapted from Table 9.1)



Budget Models


All levels of organization


Treasury and Financial Models


Cash management


Income statements


Cash flow projections


Stock and commodity prices


Marketing Models


Sales budgets


Pricing


Market share projections


Advertising and marketing plans


Operations Models


Inventory costs


Material costs


Production costs


Human Resources Models


Compensation


Optimum staffing levels


Measures of productivity


Strategic Planning Models


Scenario planning


Political/economic forecasts


Business war
-
gaming

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Stages in the Creative Process

(adapted from Figure 9.1)


5. Verification

1. Preparation

2. Concentration

3. Incubation

4. Illumination

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Osborn’s Creativity Model


Osborn’s creativity model is a three
-
phase
decision
-
making process that involves:


fact finding,


idea finding,


and solution finding


Brainstorming
is an unrestrained flow of ideas
in a group with all critical judgments
suspended.

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The Benchmarking Process

(adapted from Figure 9.2)

1. Define the


domain

Benchmarking

2. Identify the


best performers

3. Collect and


analyze to


identify gaps

4. Set


improvement


goals

5. Develop and


implement


plans to


close gaps

6. Evaluate


Results

7. Repeat


evaluations

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The Deming Cycle

(adapted from Figure 9.3)

Start

Repeat

PDCA

4. Act

1. Plan

3. Check

2. Do

Repeat

PDCA

Improvement and learning over time

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Balanced Scorecard Model

(adapted from Figure 9.4)

Financial

Perspective

Goals

Measures

Internal

Perspective

Goals

Measures

Customer

Perspective

Goals

Measures

Innovation/Learning

Perspective

Goals

Measures

Balance

Outcomes

Activities