17th Reform Group Meeting

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8 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 5 μήνες)

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17th Reform Group Meeting

Salzburg, August, 2012



Climate Policy Strategies

Green Visions



Renewable Energy and Climate Policy in Brazil


GreenTechnology and Poverty Elimination: a Metaphysical Vision


Luiz Pinguelli Rosa

Director of COPPE
-

Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

Secretary General of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change

and

China Brazil Center on


Climate Change and Energy Technology Innovation


Tsinghua University & COPPE






Energy in Brazil


Amazon rainforest in North Region


-

half of the Country area


Tucurui Hydro (8 GW)


Belo Monte Hydro in construction (11 GW)








Most industrialized


Southeast



Oil off shore production








30 millions of Brazilians did improve


their social condition coming out from


poverty to market economy in last 10


years

Brazil

Rio Madeira
New Hydro (8 GW)


Main production

of ethanol



Itaipu hydro


(14 GW)

Energy in Brazil

Off shore oil technology, self
sufficiency in oil production
(about 2Mb/d)



Recent discovery of oil in very
deep water by Petrobras



Largest producer of ethanol
from sugar cane



Large hydropower
interconnected system

more than 80% of electric
power





A

Continental
Size Electric

Network

SOURSE: ONS


2002 / ILUMINA


Light for All


Program

To give electricity for 12 millions


88% of them in rural areas


59% in the North Region

Very bad income distribution

Although 30 millions did come out
from poverty in last years


Brazilian Comparative Advantages



Brazil has great component of renewable
energy in the energy matrix: Hydro + Biofuel




0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
80,00%
90,00%
100,00%
Brazil
World
OECD
Renewable
Fossil
Petroleum and
derivatives
37,9%
Sugarcane
18,1%
Hydroelectricity
15,2%
Wood and other
biomass
10,1%
Natural Gas
8,8%
Coal
4,8%
Other renewable
sources
3,8%
Uranium
1,4%
BRAZILIAN ENERGY MATRIX INPUT (2009)

Source: BEN (2010).
Elaboration
: UNICA

Energy Supply Structure




Hydro Energy





















Brazil is the


first in water


resources


but not in


installed


capacity










But






Table 1

Top ten countries with largest water resources


Thousands Km
3
/year

M
3
/year/inhabitant*

Brazil

8.2

48.3

Russia

4.5

30.9

Canada

2.9

94.3

Indonesia

2.8

13.3

China

2.8

2.2

USA

2.0

7.4

Peru

1.9

74.5

India

1.9

1.8

Congo

1.3

25.1

Venezuela

1.2

51.0


Source: D’Áraujo 2008; FAO 2003; *per capit
a data is for 2001


Countries with
higher
hydro capacity



2005 data


Installed Capacity
(MW)

China

100.000

USA

77.354

Canada

71.978

Brazil

71.060



But Brazil is only in 5th


position with about 30%

Percentage of economic hydropower potential that is currently utilized in
selected countries

0
20
40
60
80
Norway
Japan
Canada
USA
Brazil
Russia
India
China


Source: WEC 2007; BEN 2007 for Brazil estimate

Top countries with the highest percentage of hydropower in their


electricity generation (%)


0
20
40
60
80
100
Norway
Brazil
Venezuela
Canada
Sweden
Russia
China
India
Japan
USA




Source: IEA, 2006


Brazil with > 80% is in

second position

after Norway


Debate on hydroelectricity in Brazil


Environmental and social questions


Movements against dams


Pressure to abandon hydroelectricity


Thermoelectric power plants / hydropower


Is hydro sustainable?


IPCC Special Report

on Renewable Energy, 2011


Energy Payback of
renewable options
280
267
34
5
6
205
170
18
3
3
Low estimate
High estimate
Solar Photovoltaic
Biomass Plantations
Windpower
Hydropower Run-of-river
Hydropower with reservoir
Is hydro sustainable?


It is renewable


Solar energy + gravity (+)

There are environment impacts of dam and water reservoir (
-

)

It emits GHG (
-
)


Emissions are lower than those from fossil fuel power plant (+)

There are exceptions (Balbina, Samuel


very low kW/m2) (
-
)

Run of river hydro plants have small reservoirs (+)

In this case the capacity factor is lower (42% in Belo Monte) (
-
)


Balbina = 0.1 W/m2; Belo Monte


11GW/500 km2 = 20 W/m2



Capacity factor of hydro in Brazil is 50%
-
55%

It is in average about 25% in Spain, 35% in Switzerland, France,
Japan and China,
45% in USA

Environment and Hydroelectric Power


Reduction of Reservoir Area


Run of River Hydroplant




Thermoelectric complementation


Fonte: Norte Energia

Bad life condition in ALTAMIRA near Belo Monte

can be improved


Lack of effective diologue with the population

Fonte: Eletrobras

MODEL FOR FUTURE WORKS ?

Concept of Hydro PLATFORM


TAPAJÓS River planned hydro plant

Roberto D
´
Araujo, COPPE


UFRJ Seminar, 2012

80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
jan/96
jan/97
jan/98
jan/99
jan/00
jan/01
jan/02
jan/03
jan/04
jan/05
jan/06
jan/07
jan/08
jan/09
jan/10
Hidráulicas

Térmicas

Nucleares

Eólicas

Electric Generation in Brazil 2010 e 2015 ( Plan)



2010

2015

Growth

2010
-
2015

Hydro


85.690

79,3%


97.968

71,0%


12.278

14%

Nuclear


2.007

1,9%


2.007

1,5%


0,0%

Gas


9.308

8,6%


12.257

8,9%


2.949

32%

Coal


1.415

1,3%


3.205

2,3%


1.790

127%

Biomass


4.577

4,2%


7.271

5,3%


2.694

59%

Oil


4.211

3,9%


10.011

7,3%


5.800

138%

Wind


826

0,8%


5.194

3,8%


4.368

529%

Total


108.034

100%


137.913

100%


29.879

28%


(MW) e (%)

18








Wind Energy


and Solar PV

SAZONALIDADES DAS FONTES
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
jan
fev
mar
abr
mai
jun
jul
ago
set
out
nov
dez
HIDROELÉTRICA
UTE BIOMASSA
EÓLICA










Complementarity of Biomass and Wind Energy with Hydro

Fonte: EPE

WIND
Energy

RESERVOIR

Wind Energy


1 GW in 2012 Present cost US$ 55 / MWh


10 GW in 2020

Estimated Potential 140 GW

Wind Energy Industry in Brazil

Wobben



Enercon

(
Germany
)


S. Paulo

Alstom

(France)


Bahia

Gamesa

(
Spain
)


Bahia

GE (USA)


S. Paulo e Bahia

Impsa

(Argentina)


Pernambuco e Bahia

Vestas

(DM)


Ceará

MTOI


Sta

Catarina


/
Sinovel

+ 3
coming

from

China


Goudian



\

Goldwin


Electric Generation Prices




Wind
Hydro

Nat.gas

Biom
.

Price

U$/MWh 55 35 70 75


Invest. U$/kW 1500 1000 700 1000


Capacity

factor
%* 35 50 70 45


(*) 42% in Belo Monte


Nuclear

Invest. in Angra III
-

5000+700 bi US$ / 1300 MW


= 4384 US$ / kW

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
+ 68%

Final
Consumer

-

Electric

Energy

Prices

Large

Consumers

have

private

contracts

at

lower

prices

: ANEEL
and

Roberto d
´
Araujo, Seminário, COPPE

+ 78%

+ 30%

+ 62%

Average

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

SOLAR ENERGY EPX TAUÁ MODEL
-

1 MWp





Biofuels





BIOFUELS TECHNOLOGY IN BRAZIL

Bioconversion

Chemical /
Thermal

Conversion




Technical Process:

Direct Combustion


Biomass: Products:

Firewood

Wastes (
Bagasse
)



Fermentation:
Sugar Cane

Ethanol


Corn, etc

Anaerobic

digestion
:
Wastes Biogas







Pirolisys:
Wood
Charcoal

Gasification:

Biomass
Gas




Esterification:
Veget. Oils

Biodiesel



others

Cracking+

Hydrogenation:
Veget. Oils Diesel



Hydrolisis Biomass Ethanol 2nd Gener.






l









Ethanol

in

Brazil

70

Decade



Alcohol

Program

in

response

to

Oil

Shocks

1973



ethanol

as

additive

to

gasoline


1979



pure

hydrated

ethanol

engines





80

Decade





ㄹ㠵

浯牥

瑨慮


%



湥n

捡rs

獡汥l

睥re



灵牥

eth慮al

en杩湥

c慲猬

be獩s敳

the

use



eth慮潬



ad摩瑩癥



ga獬楮i



90 Decade
-

Crisis of ethanol


less than 5% of new cars sales


Fall of crude oil price



Shortage

of

ethanol

in

Brazil



Lack

of

government

policy



2003


Re湥nal of eth慮潬a





High crude oil price



Global warming pressure



Ethanol crisis


low oil price flex cars


ethanol recovery





Sales of new cars

Ethanol in Brazil


Advantage of burning sugar cane bagasse in the distillation
process of ethanol, avoiding net greenhouse gas emission.



In the US production of ethanol from corn, fossil fuel is used in
the distillation process emitting GHG.


corn ethanol


avoides about

20% of GHG from gasoline


sugar cane ethanol


avoides

85% of GHG

from gasoline







90%
71%
61%
40%
-
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Emissões evitadas comparadas à
gasolina (%)
Brasil
-
s/ iLUC
EU RED
-
s/ iLUC
RFS
-
c/ iLUC
CARB
-
c/ iLUC
SUGARCANE ETHANOL: GHG REDUCTIONS

(SEVERAL METHODOLOGIES, COMPARED TO GASOLINE)

Fonte: Isaias Macedo e Joaquim Seabra (2008); RFS; CARB and European Directive

SUGARCANE ETHANOL

iLUC: indirect land use change
EU RED: European Renewable
Energy Directive

RFS: Renewable Fuels Standard

CARB: California Air Resources
Board

UNEP

70%

140%

Sugarcane ethanol is an advanced biofuel
(first generation biofuel with a second
generation performance).

The issue of land use for biofuels

and competittion with food in Brazil:


-

Sugar cane production


7 millions ha

about half for sugar , so for ethanol
-

4 millions ha


-

For comparison : Soy bean


23 millions ha



The Country has:


440 Mha of forest


177 Mha of pastures for cattle


152 Mha usefull for agriculture


㐯ㄵ㈠㴠㈮㘥

† †††††

† †††††
㘲6䵨愠M牥r畳u搠景爠慧物捵汴畲攬

† †††††
㤰9䵨愠瑯M數e慮a†慧物捵r瑵牥⁷楴桯i琠摥景牥獴慴d潮o


Present sugar cane plantations are not in North were there is the Amazon
forest.





The Energy Potential

of Sugar Cane

Energy from 1 Metric Ton of Sugar Cane



Considering Heat
Value
s







Mcal/t of cane



92

litters of ethanol
(best value
)







4
78







280 kg of bagasse with 50% of humidity




5
96





280
kg of trash with 50% of humidity






5
96






Source: Braunbeck, Macedo a
nd Cortez in [Silveira, 2005]



So, Sugar Cane Potential Energy > 3 X 1st Generation Ethanol Energy



1
st

GENERATION ETHANOL

SUGAR CANE &
GRAINS/CEREALS



Fuels
vs

Food

LIGNOCELLULOSIC BIOMASS



3
rd

GENERATION ETHANOL

ALGAE BIOMASS



Does not compete with food production



Faster growth than traditional crops;



Does not compete with agricultural cultures.



ETHANOL AND ITS DIFFERENT GENERATIONS



2
nd

GENERATION ETHANOL

Sugarcane biomass

Straw

Burn will be eliminated by 2014 for flat areas suitable for mechanical harvest
and by 2017 for the remaining areas

Brazilian Federal law and Sao Paulo State law


Problems
:



1
-

Now gasoline surpass ethanol



2


Now Brazil imports ethanol from USA (corn ethanol)



0
400
800
1.200
1.600
2.000
2.400



Biodiesel



Feedstocks Used for Biodiesel
Production in Brazil










Most of biodiesel


from soybean with

Very low energy per land area

J

37

Energy of Selected Crops (GJ/ha/year)

38

How to uderstand the use of soybean for biodiesel?

Only 5% of soy bean for biodiesel


浡牧楮慬⁢m灲潤p捴c




Energy and Climate





Energy per capita in some countries

Brazil has low energy per capita

and low income per capita

Capita









Data from 1980 to 2005

Pinguelli Rosa, M. Silvia Muylaert and Christiano Pires,

Renewable & Sustainable Energy, 2009



GHG Emissions (CO
2e
)

2005 Data *

Energy

Industrial

Processes

Agriculture/

Livestock

LULUCF

Waste

*

Second National GHG Inventory of Brazil 2010

2004

World
Emissions

Brazil

Brazilian Commitment in 15th COP

at Copenhagen


December, 2009



Brazil should cut betwewen 36.1% and
38.9% of estimeted emissions in 2020.



This voluntary goal (as Brazil does not
belong to Annex I of Climate Convention)
means a reduction of 1 billion tons of CO2.

Linear Growth Scenario

Deforestation per year


Present Situation





High income classes in Brazil have high energy
consumption while the majority of population is poor and
has very low energy consumption.



So there is strong inequality of the energy consumption
and of GHG emissions per capita inside the country
following the inequality in income distribution.





Research
and

Development

at


COPPE


Science & Technology & Innovation



COPPE
at the Campus of Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

COPPE

Technolgy Center of UFRJ




12 graduate programs for master’s and doctor’s
degrees


Chemical Engineering

Civil Engineering

Electrical Engineering

Mechanical Engineering

Metallurgical and Materials Engineering

Systems Engineering and Computer Science

Nuclear Engineering

Biomedical Engineering

Ocean Engineering

Production Engineering

Transportation Engineering

Energy Planning and Environment


Academic Excellence




320 full
-
time professors

3,000 students

350 researchers and technical/


administrative staff




and

Model for Comparison with Thermoelectric Power Plant




Project of COPPE with International Energy Agency and
Ministry of Energy




Hydropower and Climate Change:


Measurement of Greenhouse Gas Emission of Reservoirs



Funnel Bubble Collector Coupled to a Gas Collecting Bottle


Measurement of Emissions from Reservoirs: IVIG
-

COPPE


H
ydroelectric GHG Emission




Measurements by COPPE / IVIG










Among the 10 reservoirs studied,


the result indicates:



-

97% of total installed capacity
have GHG emissions per MWh
lower than those from natural gas
power plants,




-

some of them more than 100
times lower.




The hydro
-
power plants with
higher emissions per MWh have
very low power density (less than
0.4 W/m2)



The new plant of Belo Monte has


11000 MW 500 km2 21.5 W / m2










Biodiesel Plant


W


Waves to














Waste to Energyv Alternative Energy
Sources





Research
and



Development



Alternative


Energy Sources






Research
and

Development



Alternative Energy Sources





Magnetic Levitation


Urban Train

COPPE Hydrogen bus

Running in the Campus

160Ah, 3.2 VDC per
element, ion
-
lithium
traction battery bank and a
homemade battery
management device:
hardware and software

air
-
conditioning

fuel cell

system
radiators

four 7.2 kg H2
capacity, type
-
3,
350 bar, hydrogen
storage cylinders

high and low
pressure gases
system, including
tubing, valves,
gauges and
manifolds

77.2 kWe stationary
operation PEM type
fuel cell with balance
of plant

home made electronic power
system and main vehicular energy
control device: hardware and
software


UCPEV, standing for
this meaning in Portuguese

refueling system

traction
inverter motor
drive that
operates in
vector mode

143.5 kWe
AC squirrel
gage motor
type with
encoder

electric
powered
hydraulic
direction
pump;

electric
powered
pneumatic
air
compressor

ultracapacitors
and home made
ultracapacitors
management
device: hardware
and software

VDC

auxiliary batteries.

Second Generation Ethanol


Cooperation with Japan



COPPE/UFRJ

Rio de Janeiro



Elba P. S. Bon

Enzyme Technology Laboratory

Chemistry Institute

Federal University of Rio de Janeiro

elba1996@iq.ufrj.br

Harvest

Pre

treatment

Enzymatic

hydrolysis

Fermentation

Destilation

Sugarcane

biomass

ETHANOL

Enzyme

Production

Trichoderma

reesei

RUT C30

and

Aspergillus

awamori

BIOMASS ETHANOL
-

Process Overview

Cooperation COPPE
-

Tsinghua University



Enzymatic Biodiesel Project







Experimental Biodiesel


Plant of COPPE
-

IVIG

Visit of President Lula




Decision of starting the


Biodiesel National Plan





Test of different
row

materials


Test in locomotives of Vale Company (B20)

With PALM OIL




Wave

Power
Plant


COPPE OCEAN LAB has developed a a new technology for the
first ocean wave power plant in South America.



Includes a hyperbaric chamber ( developed in COPPE to simulate
high pressure marine environments in offshore oil production)



water pressure equivalent to 500 m high waterfall

(like Hydroelectric

Power Plant)



Laboratory of

Ocean
enginnering

of COPPE in the

Science Park

COPPE &
Tractbel

Wave

Power
Plant



Pecem

Port



Fortaleza,
Brazil

COPPE &
Tractbel

Wave

Power
Plant



Pecem

Port



Fortaleza,
Brazil


COPPE Climate & Energy


Science

Park
of

Federal
University

of

Rio de Janeiro




COPPE
Computer

COPPE
Ocean

Lab

Schlumberger




63


Planned GE Lab in the New Science Park f
or Green Tec




linked to COPPE and



Center for Sustainable Development and Poverty Elimination


created in the Rio+20 by UNDP and Brazilian Government

Problems and Challenges in Brazil



Very large potential of oil production X alternative energy


Barriers against new hydroplants is pushing thermoelectricity



Sugar international market competion with ethanol


捯牮c整桡湯氠
業灯牴p晲潭f啓䄠瑨楳Uy敡e


Need of mechanization of sugar cane production to avoid fire for
manual harvest and need of eficiency in bagasse use


Need of second generation biofuels R&D



Need of increasing wind energy for electricity generation


灲p捥c
has been reduced in the last bid for electric energy


Need of a national program for solar energy




Soybean is not ideal row material for biodiesel


Pressure in the Congress against the Forest Protection Law












World Problems and Challenges


Green Economy + Poverty Elimination

Discussed in Rio + 20:


More clear meaning of Green + Economy?


Developing countries increase GHG emission with the
economy growth + they follow developed countries
consumption pattern !


High income classes in developing countries have high
energy consumption + the majority of population is
poor and has very low energy consumption !


Can Market reduce GHG emissions + eliminate poverty?



Economy Crisis +
Need of More Regulation !