Some thoughts on ecosystem service based environmental management: Models, Tools, Examples & Applications.

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23 Οκτ 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 7 μήνες)

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Some thoughts on ecosystem service
based environmental
management:
Models, Tools, Examples & Applications.



Ralf
Seppelt, GEO BON Working Group 6 Meeting, 19
-
21.3. Paris

Martin
-
Luther Universität

Halle
-
Wittenberg

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2

Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres

F
igures


15 National
Centers


24,000 Total staff


8,500 Scientists & Engineers


3,250 Doctorial Students

Headquarters of Helmholtz Centres

Regional branch

Helmholtz office

List

Helgoland

Bremerhaven

Geesthacht

Hamburg

Greifswald

Braunschweig

Wolfenbüttel
-
Remlingen

Göttingen

Magdeburg

Potsdam

Berlin

Zeuthen

Teltow

Niemegk

Halle

Leipzig

Bad
Lauchstädt

Köln

Jülich

Bonn

Darmstadt

Heidelberg

Lampoldshausen

Karlsruhe

Stuttgart

München

Garching

Neuherberg

Oberpfaffenhofen

Energy

Earth & Environment

Human Health

Key
-
Technologies

Structure of Matter

Infrastracture

and Space

Figures


900 total
staff


200
Doctorial

Students

www.ufz.de

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3

Computational Landscape Ecology

Urban land
use and
Ecosystem
services

Biotic
Ecosystem
Services

Catchment
management

Scenario
Develop
-
ment

and
Analysis

Plant
pheno
-
logy,
stress

Agent
based
modlling

Statistics

Optimization,
High
perfor
-
mance

computing

Land use
change
modelling

Remote
Sensing

Model based quantification of robust, reliable
relationships between land use, structure and the
functions provided by the ecosystems

Fields

Methods

Fields and Methods

www.ufz.der/cle

Todays menue


Challenges
,
methods

and
tools

to
analyse

ecosystems

services

on
the

regional
scale


Modeling & Analysis


Global vs. Regional Scale



Project (GLUES) and research
programme in Germany


Database


S
ynthesis


Model
-
based analysis

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4

Global vs. regional assessments


Land management is a regional
process

o
direct feedbacks between
ecosystem services and
human well being

o
Regional case studies are key

o
What are the feedbacks
between regions?

o
How to synthesize regional
results?

Roudsepp
-
Haerne

et al. (2010,
BioScience
)


Human well
-
being and ecosystem
services show globally different
trends. Why?


Reject Hypothesis


Lack of data?


Lack of undersrtanding


Wrong Scale?

Global pollination
d
emand

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6

Lautenbach et al. (in prep)

Example

p
ollination

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7

Lautenbach et al. (in prep)

Experimental results on pollination

Dorman et al. (subm.)

Summer 2010 Experiment:


Distribution of bee netsts


Yield increase of 20%

bees

released

yes

no

Apple
yield

[
kg/tree
]

**

Analysis of feedbacks:
a
rtificial

landscapes

Generation 1

10
Generations

Generation 800

Non
-
linear

Trade
-
offs

~lineare
Trade
-
offs

Recreation

=
f(forest

area
,
shape
)

Production

=
f(fiel

size
,
pollination
,
s
oil

fertity
)

Pollination

=

f(forest

edge
)

Spatial

c
onfiguration

Pollination

Modifications

Parthe basin and biofuel production


study trade
-
offs between
bioenergy

production, food
production, water quality
and water quantity


Varyation of the crop
rotation schemes


Objective function:


5 percentile discharge


Average NO
3
-

concentration


Yield food production


Yield
bioenergy

crops


Results scenario analysis


trade
-
offs regarding scenario
assumptions


but: how good are the scenario
assumptions?

Strauch 2010, Strauch, Ullrich, Volk 2010

Generation 2, e.g. Monte Carlo Analysis


Use of genetic algorithms
for variation of crop
rotation, e.g. variation of
land use intensity


Generation 2
-
> 30

Generation 30
-

100

Generation 100
-

500

Processes


Food yield ~ Bioenergy yield
-
1


NO
3

~ Food yield
-
1


NO
3

~ Bioenergy yield

Uncertainty


Hydrology: high (equifinality
pattern)


Yield: low





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17

Mariage of
a
pple and oranges

Middle Spotted

Woodpecker

Red
-
Backed Shrike

Wood Lark

Leipzig, Germany

Holzkämper & Seppelt, 2007

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18

Habitat improvement and
its

valuation

Leipzig, Germany

Task
: optimise land use
patterns for maximum habitat
performance while minimizing
costs for land use change

Wood Lark

Red
-
Backed shrike

Middle Spotted Woodpecker


a)

b)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0

5000

10000

15000

0

15000

30000

P

profit loss [

/ha]

HSI
opt

optimized mean habitat suiatbility

P

profit loss [

/ha]

Holzkämper & Seppelt, 2007

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19

Habitat suitability & Economy

Holzkämper & Seppelt, 2007

Leipzig, Germany

Task
: optimise land use
patterns for maximum
habitat performance while
minimizing costs for land
use change

Conclusions & Next Steps

Conclusion


Trade
-
offs: Separate (landscape) pattern
and process!


Bundles of ecosystem functions/services
are determined by patterns (landscape)
and processes and are non
-
linear.


Next Steps


Regional focus demands synthesis of
place
-
based studies


Blueprint or standardized prototokoll
required


This is a prerequisite for standardized
data
-
bases


Modelling, requires data based
backgrounds





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20

Review
:
Regional

Ecosystem Services
Studies


Considered uncertainty


Data source


Ecosystem services in
isolation


Modelling

approaches


Valuation


Number of ecosystem
services


Scenario
-
Analysis


Specific recommendations


Stakeholder involvement

Seppelt et al. (2011,
JApplEcol
)

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22

Review
:
Regional

Ecosystem Services
Studies

Seppelt et al. (2011,
JApplEcol
)


Considered uncertainty


Data source


Ecosystem services in
isolation


Modelling

approaches


Valuation


Number of ecosystem
services


Scenario
-
Analysis


Specific recommendations


Stakeholder involvement

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23

Review
:
Regional

Ecosystem Services
Studies

It is unclear to what degree
biophysical realism

is
required in ecosystem service
assessments

Methods to analyze
trade offs
among ecosystem services
and economic goals are not
well developed

Consideration of
off
-
site
effects

is extremely rare


Involvement of
stakeholders

rarely extends to the
implementation phase
(‚ownership‘)

Seppelt et al. (2011,
JApplEcol
)

Blueprint for Assessment Studies

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24


Purpose &

Design




Problemscape &
Concept





Analysis,
Assessment,
Valuation & Test



Recommendation &
Results



Monitoring

Seppelt et al. (subm)

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25

Systainable Landmanagement Programme

www.sustainable
-
landmanagement.net

Objective of RFP


methods and tools for
sustainable land
management


different regional, hot spot
regions


support these regional
research project with
consistent global land use
and climate change data

Place
-
based studies in the programme

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26

GLUES Overarching Scientific Support and Synthesis

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27

Szenario, Models & Synthesis

Common Geodata
Infrastructure

Communication

&
Outreach

Stakeholder &
Products

GLUES: Global
Assessment

of Land
Use

Dynamics,
Greenhouse

Gas
Emissions

and Ecosystem Services

GLUES’ methodology

1.
GLUES GDI (
Geodata

Infrastructure)


provides a common infrastructure to publish,
share and maintain distributed global and
regional data sets, scenario data and model
results.

2.
Mid
-
Term Projections (2030/50)



incorporate
feedbacks of agricultural markets, land use and
climate

3.
Long
-
Term Scenarios (2100)

delivers land use
change scenarios based on global sustainability
goals and climate change, to be used to project
land management impacts on global climate.

4.
Synthesis
develops methods and tools for
trade
-
off and off
-
site effect analysis, valuation of
ecosystem services and support instruments
development

GLUES GDI

Concept


Global distributed Geodata Infrastructure: Data
ramains with the owner


INSPIRE Conform


Links up GLUES partners


Links up regional projects (in Version 1)


Open to the community (in Version 2)


Content & Function


Holds global data land use, ecosystem services,
scenarios, climate change etc.


Harvests available databses


(FAO, IUCN based on standardized links)


Product


embeddeable in Google Earth, ArcGIS


Prototype for internal testing available


Version 1 available 1/2012



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29

GLUES modelling concept

Concept: Global scale


Model based generation of Scenarios on land use,
climate change pattern for short and long term
scenarios


Concept: Regional Scale


Generec ESF/ESS Models of intermediate complexity
relating land use (change/intensity) to ecosystem
services


Using knowlege form well tested established system


Covering processes in hot spot regions


Partly meta
-
model to cover processes from regional
projects


Analysis


Analysis of trade
-
offs via optimization and Monte
-
Carlo
Simulation


Analysis on off
-
site effects


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30

GLUES synthesis

Concept


Use of avaliable data on regional
ecosystem service assessments (meta
-
analysis, accross projects: TEEB,
Conservation Internation, etc.)


Use network and statistical analysis


Analysis


Relate Environmental and Economic
Conditions and assessed Ecosystem
Services


Identification of threasholds, nonlinearites

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32

Some

c
oncluding

statements


Diversity of model developments is
beneficial for scientific progress but might be
contraproductive for ecosystem service
assessments


Off
-
site effects and trade
-
off analysis are
core challenges for regional studies


Biophysical realism of models supporting
ecosystem service assesments is support by
systematic analysis

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33

Thank you for your un
-
prejudice attention!

Questions welcome:

ralf.seppelt@ufz.de

(I forgot my cards)

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34



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35

Some

Concluding

Statements


Various models and tools are helpful for
untangling relationships between land use
(intensity) and ecosystem services. In which
do we belief?


Modeling provides virtual experiments with
landscapes. How not to loose realistic
constraints?


Regional resources management is
embedded in global processes. How to be
quantify off
-
site effects?


Need for research in appropriate
development of reliable instruments and
tools for supporting the Ecosystem Service
Concept