Global Oil Depletion:

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IWOOD
-
IV, Lisbon, May 2005.



Global
Oil Depletion:
Methodologies & Results




R.W. Bentley

c/o
Dept. of Cybernetics, University of Reading, UK.

ASPO
-

Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

The University of Reading, UK.

Postgraduate Research Institute for Sedimentology
:


Prof. M.L. Coleman (ex
-
BP), Prof. B.W. Sellwood.

Department of Engineering
:


Dr. J.D. Burton, Mr. R.H. Booth (ex
-
Shell),


Dr. R.M. Mayer (ex
-
BP), Prof. P.D. Dunn.

Department of Cybernetics
:


Dr. G.R. Whitfield, Dr. R.W. Bentley (ex
-
Exxon).


Classification of Oil Forecasts


Group 1:

Resource
-
limited global production peak

1996
-

2020.


(Conventional oil only / Conv. + Non
-
conv.)


[Many: Hubbert 1956; ESSO, Shell 1970s; EnergyFiles 2004, Deffeyes 2005.]

Group 2:

‘Business
-
as
-
usual’
.


Resources meet demand to 2020
-

2030 (forecast end).


(Not say if resource
-
limited peak later.)


[
WEC/IIASA 1998; IEA
WEO

2000; US EIA 2002;


EU:
WETO

(POLES) 2003; Exxon
-
Mobil 2004.]


Group 3:

No resource
-
limited peak
(in medium
-
term).


[BP (P. Davies, Chief Economist); ENI

(L. Maugeri, Gp. Snr. VP);


Institutes: OIES, CGES, RIIA; Academics: Stevens, Chesshire,


Kemp, Adelman, Lynch, Yergin.]


Global Production - Conventional Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Production (Mb/day)
IEA 2004
Exxon
POLES
Odell
EIA 2,2%
IEA 1998
EnergyFiles
Deffeyes
U/Campbell
Ivanhoe
Global production - Conv. plus non-conv. oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Production (Mb/day)
IEA 2004
Odell
Shell-Sc.
PFC
Bauquis
BGR
BP-Miller
Deffeyes
EnergyFiles
U/Campbell
Why the Disagreement?


Two data sets:



-

Industry data: accurate but expensive


-

Proved reserves: misleading, and wrong.


Forgetfulness


Economic arguments omitted from models:


-

Human ingenuity


-

Price: incr. exploration & recovery; decr. demand.


-

Technology gain


-

‘Resources into reserves’; oil as % of GDP; etc.


Use of USGS data without analysis


Large volumes of non
-
conventional oil


Economists & geologists do not talk


Few analysts; some very poor analysis.

There is a whole talk looking at these reasons in detail.


But here: Methods used by Groups 1 & 2.


Peaking in
-



-

Conventional oil (excl. very heavy oils, tar sands,


Orinoco oil, oil from oil shales, NGLs;


also excluding oil from gas or coal).


-

‘All
-
oil’: Conv. & Non
-
conv. (excl. oil from gas


or coal).


-

All hydrocarbons (all
-
oil and gas; ex oil from coal).


Proved reserves: ‘financially
-
committed’ oil.

P50 reserves (~’2P’): discovered oil.

Ultimate: original endowment of recoverable oil (‘URR’).

Hubbert’s Methodologies for US Lower
-
48 peak.

Date Method





Ult. (Gb) Peak Yr.

1956

Ultimate from industry estimates, hand
-
drawn curve.

150
-
200


~1965
-
70

1962

Historical production & proved reserves data only:



-

Production mirrors proved discovery.



not req.


~1967



-

Ultimate from logistic fit; iterative


not req.
[170] ~1967



linearisation; peak at mid
-
point.

ditto

Ultimate from extrapolated field distribution (large


175



fields ‘grown’ and backdated).

1967

‘Creaming’ curve: plot of ‘grown’ backdated


[not used]



discovery vs. time.

ditto

Extrapolated ‘grown’ backdated discovery/cum. ft.


150
-
170



(recognising discovery fall
-
off vs. cum. ft.)

1982

Direct linearisation (vs. cum. production).


not req.
[164] [past!]


N.B. Peak was in 1971; US
-
48 ‘discovery
-
trend’ ultimate ~ 190 Gb (NGLs?).


Hubbert:
-

Eight ways to calculate peak. [US 1956 cum. prodn. = 52 Gb.]



-

Production curve need not have a single peak, nor be symmetric.



-

Recognised: technology gain (‘factored in’), increases in recovery



factor, higher prices, large non
-
conventionals, net
-
energy limit.

Methodologies for the World peak
-

(i).



Peak

Date/Author Method





Ult. (Gb) Yr. Mb/d

‘56 Hubbert

Ult. from Weeks (mod.); hand
-
drawn curve


1250 ~2000 35

‘69 Hubbert

Logistic curve





1350 1990 65




ditto






2100 2000 100

‘72 ESSO

? (a):“increasingly scarce from ~ yr. 2000”


2100 (a)

‘72 Ward & Dubois ? [Report to the UN.]




2500 ~2000

‘76 UK DoE

?






~2000

‘77 Ehrlich

?






1900 2000

‘77 Hubbert

Ult. from Nehring: Logistic (unconstrn’d.)


2000 1996 100







Demand flat from 1974 ditto 2035





[ Actual demand between these two cases.]

‘79 Shell

? (b):“plateau within next 25 years”



(b)

‘79 BP


? Non
-
communist world, ex NGLs.


?


1985




[ Actual demand fell, Ult. about right. ]

‘81 World Bank

? (c):“plateau from around turn of century”


1900


(c)


? = Not known; probably Mid
-
point peaking.

Others gave estimates for ult., but did not carry through to a peak date:

SPRU, UK: 1800
-
2480Gb; WEC/IFP: 1803 Gb; D. Meadows
et al.
: 1800
-
2500 Gb.

Methodologies for the World peak
-

(ii).




Peak

Date/Author Method





Ult. (Gb) Year

‘95 Petroconslts.

Campbell & Laherr
ère. Industry P50 data.


1850 CxN 2005




Ults. by country from: Extrp’d creaming





curves vs. NFW; Field distribution (parab.




fractal); individual field URR by linears’n.;




geologic knowledge. Peak at mid
-
point.

‘97 Ivanhoe

Prodn. ~mirrors industry discy. data (USGS?) 2000 C 2010

‘97 Laherr
è
re

?






2700 A

‘98 IEA
WEO

Ult. from USGS (Petcn.). Mid
-
point peaking 2300 C 2014

‘99 Magoon

? [USGS]





~2000 C ~2010

‘02 BGR

? Conv. ult.: 2670 Gb





A 2017

‘03 Deffeyes

Hubbert linearisation





A 2005

‘03 Bauquis

~Mid
-
point peaking.




3000 A 2020

‘03 Uppsala/Campbell Updated Petroconsultants’ ‘95




A ~2012

‘03 Laherr
è
re

?






3000 A

‘03 EnergyFiles

Own ests. of country ults; + prodn. curves.



A 2011




Conv. ult.: 2338 Gb ; pk. date if 2% demand.

‘03 Bahktiari








C 2006
-
7




C: conventional oil. xN: ex NGLs. A: All oil (incl. non
-
conv.)

Methodologies for the World peak
-

(iii).















Peak

Date/Author Method





Ult. (Gb) Year

‘04 BP


[Miller, own model]



OPEC producing at all reasonable cap’y.:


2018

‘04 PFC Energy

IHS Energy plus other data & comparisons;



2018



yet
-
to
-
find from discovery trends; standard



models for production. Peak date is ‘Base case’.

‘05 Deffeyes

Hubbert linearisation.





2005

Methodologies for the World peak
-

(iv).





-----

Conventional Oil
-----

Incl.





(Int.)

US UK

EU
Non
-
Cv.

Analysis



IEA EIA DTI
WETO

Odell


No industry data



Y Y


Y


Y Y

Confuse 1P and 2P reserves


Y


Y


Y


Y Y

Incorrect decline rate




Y

USGS data without analysis


Y


Y


Y


Y Y

Ultimates used (Gb):


3345 3303


-

4500 4000


Hence
-

Reserves Growth


Y Y twice! Y



-

Shell ‘SFR’ oil





Y

Date of Peak:



None None None None 2060


Conventional oil (incl. NGLs)
-

Industry P50 data:



Discovery peaked ~1965



Today: Cum. discovery is ~1950 Gb



Ann. discvy. ~10Gb/yr., Discovery asymptote ~2250 Gb

World Volumes of All Hydrocarbons (Shown to scale)


Data in billion barrels of oil

(Gb)
, or oil equivalent.

Unresolved Issues




-

How big are the Middle
-
East P50 reserves?

-

How significant is IHS Energy’s aggregate


discovery growth: ‘fan diagram’?

-

Impact on peak date of 650 Gb of ‘SFR’ oil


(Shell); and reserves growth (USGS)?

-

Impacts of technology & price.

-

How fast can non
-
conventional oil, and


oil substitutes, come on
-
stream?

-

What limits set by net
-
energy requirements?




-

Research needed.

Conclusions
-

(i).




Never use Proved reserves (under, over & not
-
reported).



Never use R/P ratio. (Use mid
-
point peaking).



Countries go over resource
-
limited peak (some 60


countries so far, plus: Europe, Asia
-
Pacific, N. America.)




Peak P50 discovery Peak production


U.S.


1930s


1971


U.K. mid
-
70s


1999


World. mid
-
60s ~ 2010



High ‘ultimates’ cannot be found in time (100 years!).



Reserves growth is now mainly a secondary effect.



Resource pyramid: not for conventional oil;


for non
-
conventional only in certain countries.

Conclusions contd.
-

(ii).

The following peak dates look reasonable:







Date of peak


Non
-
OPEC peak:

Conventional oil


now
-

2007



Global peak:

Conventional oil


2010
-

2015




All oil



2010
-

2020




Oil + Gas



2015
-

2020




Gas




2020
-

2030


(But a possible near
-
term supply glut:


deepwater, Russia, Caspian, Iraq, tar sands ?)

Needed:



-

Far wider understanding of depletion


-

Better calculations: resources + price / technology



-

Work towards an International Protocol


END