The Chronocomplexity of Actionable Intelligence

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15 Νοε 2013 (πριν από 3 χρόνια και 8 μήνες)

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1

The Chronocomplexity of
Actionable Intelligence

Gus Koehler

Time Structures

http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros
-
hoagland/ramadi
-
iraq
-
2007
-
02.shtml

2

Overview


The Policy Working Group’s focus is on blocking structures as wicked problems that impede the
creation and movement of actionable intelligence or military technology to the soldier and from the
soldier via network centric technology



This presentation looks at how networks, structures and their boundaries

including blocks

are
created and maintained by the chronocomplexity of policy decisions that regulate the movement of
information, energy, and resources. Such relationships are likely to produce wicked problems



It is changes in the alignment of barriers and related opening
-
closing of policy or opportunity
windows that creates opportunities. What are such windows and why do they occur? Is there a
special role for the policy entrepreneur?



We will use the term time
-
ecology to refer to the networks, and heterochrony to refer to the
complex flow of resources, energy, and information.



Issues are:



What chronocomplexity related factors contribute to the dynamics of wicked problems that
block the movement of military
-
technology and intelligence to their operational use by a
soldier?



How is a policy entrepreneur able to enter, assess, anticipate, and influence the behavior of
such a Chronocomplex system using policy windows?




How is a policy windows opened in a chronocomplex system to produce and communicate
actionable intelligence or technology when we want to a soldier?

Time Structures

3

Actionable Intelligence is Dynamic, meaning it
involves

Time and Trickery



Actionable

Intelligence is
providing

commanders and
soldiers a level of
situational

understanding, delivered
with
speed
, accuracy, and
timeliness
, in order to
conduct

successful operations”



“Actionable

intelligence is not perfect intelligence, as its
an
expedient

intelligence, particularly in terms of being
delivered

in an
expedient

way or not”



Operations involve a strategy of “tricking” the enemy with
well timed and informed tactics into taking a vulnerable
position or to prevent us from being so tricked.

Time Structures

4

Battlefield and Administrative Strategy involve
Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery


“In strategy there are various timing considerations. From the outset you must
know the applicable timing and the inapplicable timing, and from among the
large and small things and fast and slow timings find the relevant timing, first
seeing the distance timing and the background timing. This is the main
strategy, otherwise your strategy will become uncertain. You win in battles
with the timing…of cunning by the knowing the enemies’ timing, and thus
using a timing which the enemy does not expect.”

Shinmen Musashi, A Book of Five Rings
(1645).



To trick someone is to destroy their boundaries. It is to destroy a
boundary’s edge by confusing a distinction they are making and the
timing they are using to establish and carry it out. Simultaneously, it is
the creation of a new boundary, a new distinction, a reshaping of the
world. Here we are talking about breaking the boundary of the enemy’s
strategy, of the formation they are using and its timing to create a new
battlefield where they no longer exist.
Lewis Hyde, Trickster Makes the World (1998).



Time Structures

5

What is a Time Ecology and Why is it Important?


The complex parallel activities, innovation, and feed back relationships of battlefield, simulations,
intelligence technology business and services, and legislative processes continuously organize
the evolution of the actionable intelligence cluster from top to bottom




The full range of linear and nonlinear time/space networked linkages of the battlefield
-
network
-
intelligence technology complex creates an interconnected ecology

a time
-
ecology

of growth
regulating unique, more or less intense, and often complex rhythmic pulses that occur in parallel
sometimes in sync across multiple time scales flowing at varying rates out of the past, through the
present and into the future



Heterochrony regulates each of the three fundamental elements of growth

size, development,
and time

leading to variation in a descendant network, organization, or individual body.




Small changes to a component can affect rates of flow, feeding forward or back, varying the entire
time
-
ecology's heterochronic pattern



A time
-
ecology of networked flows could continuously give rise, through appropriately or
inappropriately timed interventions to a complex and often emergent aggregate structure

a
wicked problem

that could not be predicted from its parts.




Time Structures

6

A Battle of Time Ecologies:


Navy Asymmetric Persian Gulf War Game


THE GAME
: Van Riper had at his disposal a computer
-
generated flotilla of small boats and planes, many
of them civilian, which he kept buzzing around the virtual Persian Gulf in circles as the game was about to
get under way. As the US fleet entered the Gulf, Van Riper gave a signal
-

not in a radio transmission that
might have been intercepted, but in a coded message broadcast from the minarets of mosques at the call to
prayer. The seemingly harmless pleasure craft and propeller planes suddenly turned deadly, ramming into
Blue boats and airfields along the Gulf in scores of al
-
Qaida
-
style suicide attacks. Meanwhile, Chinese
Silkworm
-
type cruise missiles fired from some of the small boats sank the US fleet's only aircraft carrier
and two marine helicopter carriers. The tactics were reminiscent of the al
-
Qaida attack on the USS Cole in
Yemen two years ago, but the Blue fleet did not seem prepared. Sixteen ships were sunk altogether, along
with thousands of marines. If it had really happened, it would have been the worst naval disaster since Pearl
Harbor.



TIMING
: Islamic communication, surprise, inconsistent with US expectations, took advantage of slow
background timing of US, used rapid space
-
time defining movements of small boats



TRICKERY
: Rapidly moving small, maneuverable boats and planes overcame US Navy ship defensive
organization with boundary penetrating strategies. US Navy boundary chopped up into smaller pieces
involving multiple new boundaries and new very local rather than extended space
-
time.



"A phrase Van Riper heard over and over and responded to: 'That would never have happened. And I said:
nobody would have thought that anyone would fly an airliner into the World Trade Centre . . . but nobody
seemed interested."



SUMMARY
:


Timing and Trickery succeeded on the battlefield in breaking and creating new space
-
time boundaries


Disconnect between this activity, its communication and interpretation at higher organizational levels who
had their own notion of time and boundary maintenance. The message did not make it up.


Time Structures

7

Operations: “Tricking” the Enemy in


Two Time
-
Ecologies

Time Structures

Bagdad Time Ecology: flat, high population


density, many housing and commercial


buildings, roads, ethnic groups conflict,

intense street to street fighting, building to building
fire fights, snipers, IUD, city business
-
market
-
school
time, rapid communications on both sides (TV, face
to face, radios, cell phones, visual, etc)

Afghan
-
Pakistan Border time
-
ecology:
mountainous, low population density, few housing
and commercial buildings, dirt roads, trails, and
very local ethnic groups, bandit
-
war lord
-
drug lord
control, point to point communications, runners to
communicate face to face, agrarian time, armored
vehicles, extreme flight problems, sudden fire
fights, snipers, IUDs, etc.

8

The Intelligence
-
Technology
-
Battlefield Time
-
Ecology

Battlefield


Personal


Line of sight


Natural
-
interface


Survival and Real
-
time


Timing


Trickery

Virtual Simulation



Idealized
-
unnatural



Non
-
Biological/addictive



Computer icon



Avatar life/death



Real
-
to
-
Simulation time



Networked: Hub, Node, Identify

Intelligence Technology



Organizational survival
(100 years)



Budget & Legislative cycles



Concentration of authority



Bureaucratic rules



Hierarchical and networked



Competition for funds and

projects



Local time (8hr, home,
career, soccer, seasons)


http://www.battlespaceonline.org/eros
-
hoagland/ramadi
-
iraq
-
2007
-
02.shtml

Time Structures

9

Def: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L
-
system

Wicked Problems may have multiple tree shapes: Threading the various timings of development and rates of change produces

a different tree and relationships among limbs, etc. Time ambiguity, that is choosing one external temporality or local point

as


“the clock”, defines branching, connectivity and causality..

Wicked problem: an emergent property of a time
-
ecology “tree’s” shape as formed by its heterochrony

Wicked Problem

Barriers

1. Uniform development and

placement of nodes (“children”)

2. Uniform application of a single

branching rule (angle, folding, etc)

3. Causality one direction only

4. Appears to lack flow

5. Wicked problem at one location

6. Space
-
time uniform

1. Stem can emerge from generation of children

2. Uniform application of different complex


rules can produce different branching and children forms

3. Each “child” has its own growth rate

4. Connectors or stems have their own size and rate of flows

5. Heterochrony changes in the way it organizes the whole

6.
Space
-
time varies

7.
Multiple causal directions

Multiple Wicked

Problems

Barriers (branching

rules, bifurcations,

etc

Time Structures

10

Visualizing a Time
-
Ecology: Video
Excerpts of Traffic Regulation

11

Time Ecology: Regulation of Policy Windows


Battlefield strategy creates an opportunity to take advantage of the
enemy through trickery



Public policy and policy windows



Movement and realignment by breaking barriers to regulate the
flow of energy, resources and information that is external with
internal structures that creates an opportunity for changing a
policy (budget, elections, policy cycles) via a policy window

here to move new scientific technology



Natural, social, and now virtual regulation of heterochrony and time
budgets is the issue



Timing for trickery?

Time Structures

12

Five Principal Temporalities and Associated Causalities


Time is:

Propagation in

Space is:

Past
-
Present

Future

Relationship

Is:

Causality is:

Sociotemporal

Local Chunking

Networks via

Local or

Extended Hubs
and Nodes

Pst
-
pres
-
pres

-
pst
-
fut
-
pst
-
pst

pst...

(continuous
redefining)

Complex

Biotemporal

Bounded

Developmental/Gr
owth

Local

Reproductive
Networks

Unidirectional

Morpho
-

dynamics

Unidirectional

Interactive/

Natural

Selection

Ecological
-
Terrain

Multiple
-
Interactive

Extended and
local (ex.
climate vs
whether)

Unidirectional

Complex

Physical Laws
Eootemporal

Now
-
less flow

Inverse Square
Law and
diffusion

Unidirectional

Deterministic

Virtual

No flow

Electronically
timed by
Computer
and Sweep
Generator

No Direction

Eootemporal and
Programmed

Time Structures

13

Differing pasts:
Experiences
Expectations
Rate of movement
into the present
Rate of vanishing
into the past
Near or far
Density
Market and Industry
Government
Disaster Response
Warfare
Housing and Community
Environment/Nat. Resources
Health, Welfare & Safety
Differing Presents
:
Narrow or wide
Rate of
movement
into the past
Rate of movement
into the future
Density
Differing Futures:
Expectations
Control
Depth
Rate of movement
into future
How the past is
brought forward
Density
Temporal Orientation and Perspective Vary by Individual
and by Organization
Source: Victoria Koehler
-
Jones, 1999.

Time Structures

14

Three Local Times


Electronic battlefield is endlessly extended (macro & micro) with unlimited number avatars and
tokens in program/computer timed virtual space linked to the biotemporality



Space
-
time battle is highly local (streets, mountain gorges, small
-
boat
-
to
-
Ship) and is embedded
in five, layered temporalities that proceed at varying rates out of the past through the present into
the future



Public policy making is highly local in terms of exercising authority but extended over large
distances and many layers encompassing the intelligence industry and constituencies among
other factors



Five space
-
time dimensions are causally nested and uniquely placed in all of these time
-
ecologies



Each “placement” includes a temporal orientation and perspective toward the past, present, and
future



Wicked problems are local space
-
time problems embedded in different space
-
time time budget
streams that continuously form developing agents and landscapes according to chronocomplexity
dynamics





Time Structures

15

Preliminary Identification of a Government/Industry Cluster Clock
-
Time
Event Layers


(Nootemporal and Agent time are not ordered by layer)

(Colors are keyed to dia
grams below)

Organization or Process



Scale: Length of




Cycle




Cycle









Level One (100+ yrs)


1. Government Administrative

Institution life
-
cycle

27
-
100 yrs
(Kaufman (1976)



Jurisdiction



2. L
arge firm life
-
cycle


50
-
100+ yrs (Atlantic Monthly)



Domestic/global









Level Two (10
-
80 yrs)


3. National GDP expand/contract

59
-
80 yrs

(Pagan (1997)




Jurisdiction


4. Kondratieff

long wave cycles


40
-
65 yrs

(De Greene, 1988).




Economy


5. Major Party realignment


40 yrs
(Key, )




Political boundaries

6. Congressional institutional

organizational life
-
cycle


20
-
40 yrs

(Rieselback,1986)



Institution


7. Industry cluster formation/death

10
-
50 yrs
(Saxinean, Ree
s and Stafford, 1986)

Network



8. Regional Infrastructure

(roads, ports, etc.)


25
-
30 yrs





Network


9. Policy cycles



12
-
27 yrs
(Schlesinger, 1986; and Klingberg, 1983).
Varies by policy Area
Jurisdiction



10. District reapportionme
nt


10 yrs






Jurisdiction



Level Three (1
-
9 yrs)


11. Business cycle



1
-
9 yrs
(Temin, 1998)


Economy


12. Business network formation

life
-
cycle



virtual and various


Domestic/global


13. Small and medium sized

firm life
-
cycle


5 yrs
to form;
(Young, ?)
5 yrs to die
(D
=
Aveni, 1989).


Domestic


14. Governors and Members

professional life
-
cycle


4
-
6 yrs





Indiv./population

15. State regional economies


5
-
7 yrs

16. Business Cycle (expand/cont)

5
-
7 yrs
(Kimberly, Robert Miles, 1
980)


Economy




Level Four (6 months to 2 years)


17. Time to develop and pass







Legislature



legislation



1
-
2 yrs

18. Regulatory cycle



1
-
2 yrs





Jurisdiction


19. Technology cycle

(Moore
=
s law)



1.5 yr





Economy


20. State Budget cycle



1 yr





All Jurisdict/prog.

21. Legislative session life cycle


1 yr





Jurisdict/program

22. Electoral process cycle


1 yr






District



23. Internet demand

(100% increase)


1 yr (
McQuillan, 1999)


Telecommunicatins network


24. Employee training and

other internal firm

processes cycles


6 mon
-
1 yr (Sastry, 1997)




Firm

Time
Structures

16

27. Product innovation

S curve cycles



6 mon. per season (Modis, 1998)
.

Firm



Level Five (Hours to 6 months)


28. Programatic interventions



(funds and services)


monthly





Jurisdiction

29. Demand for data bites and

internet core

(100% in
crease)


2 months (
McQuillan, 1999)




Economy

30. Media content cycles


(story coverage time)



Circulation



Level Six (Minutes to seconds)
(Lemke, 2000)


31. Interpersonal dialogue


seconds/minustes




Person


32. Utterance (word
or phrase)


second (1
-
10)



Person

33. Vocal sound



10^
-
1 Sec.


Level Seven (Less than a second)
(Lemke, 2000)




34. Neuronal patterns




10^
-
2 Sec.


Brain

35. Neural firings

(nural processes)

10^
-
3 Sec.

36. Membrane process (Ligand binding)


10^
-
4 Sec.

37. Chemical synthesis (Neurotransmitters)

10^
-
5 Sec.


Level Eight (Virtual
-
electronic
-
biological perception)


38. Computer clock time and flat or other screen sweep generation consistent with visual processing

Speed.


Source: Gus Koehler, “
A Framework fo
r Visualizing the Chronocomplexity of Politically
Regulated Time
-
Ecologies,” Prepared for Presentation at International Society for the Study of
Time, 2001 Conference, Gorgonza, Italy, July 8
-
22, 2001.


This material is based upon work supported by the U.
S. National Science Foundation under Grant No.
0083934. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those
of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Coinvestiga
ting
institutions each with complementary research to this effort include, of which this document is Part I:
Arizona State University, University of Southern California, Institute for Law and Systems Research, and
Time Structures.

Time
Structures

17

Sociotemporal Extension in Space


Sociotemporal extension is interaction beyond one’s immediate presence
via voice, physical messages, digital or analogues messages, virtual
messages, refrigerator magnets



Projection of authority over space and time



Stretching of socio
-
political systems across time



Movement to one point like Los Angeles from Santa Barbara can take 500
minutes or 100 minutes by car depending on the year



Simultaneity of convergence at different space times by class based on
mode of transportation (high cost of political participation for the poor or
different organizations)



Any local patch is deformed by sociotemporal extensions (prune world)


Time Structures

19

Elements of Complexity Contribute to Wicked
Problems


“Structural” complexity
: Number of different parts in a time
-
ecology and
their interactions



“Hierarchical” complexity
: Number of levels in a hierarchy that makes up
the time ecology



“Functional” complexity
:


Number of different functions an organism or organization can
perform, or


Computational capacity of an organism, organization or device



Chronocomplexity
: number of heterochronic interactions via tubes within
the system including the developmental status of an agent/organization, and
between the system and its natural environment

Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity

Time Structures

20

Stretching social

time
-
ecologies

across

space
-
time

Structural Complexity

Hierarchical

Complexity

Chronocomplexity

Functional

Complexity

Time Structures

21

Measures of complexity


“[…] no broad definition has been offered that is both
operational, in the sense that it indicates
unambiguously how to measure complexity in real
systems, and universal, in the sense that it can be
applied to all systems.”


D.W. McShea (1996)

Chris Adami, Evolution of Biocomplexity

Time Structures

22

A Closer Look at Three Time Ecologies: 1. Battlefield

2. Battle Field Virtual

3. Government
-
Private Sector

Time Structures

23

Policy Windows Move

Policy Window

Tactics for Both: Dividing

Space
-
Time with Trickery

Intelligence Technology Complex
: Timing is weeks, months, and years.

Battlefield
: Time is context
-
enemy tactics driven from seconds to weeks,

months and years

Time Structures

24

Future Approach B


US Soldier: Heterochrony

of Nested

Temporalities

Uneven Time Chunks


Future Approach B





Moslem Enemy: Heterochrony

of Nested

Temporalities










Past fading B


Past Fading A


Future Approach A


Local Landscape

(Spatial
-
Temporal)

Characteristic

Entrainment

Battlefield: Agent, Pipes, and Landscapes

As Complementary fields in Space

Time as seen from the Nootemporal

Perspective

Time Structures

25

Command Operations & High
-
Tech Business

Temporal Layers
Growth
Developmental Stages
Foresight Horizon
A B C
D E
Start
-
up
Early
-
stage
Rapid Growth
Mature
Declining
Future
Prod.Dev
.
Research
Planning
Management
Human
Resources
Capital
Marketing
Manufacturing
Information
Technology
Temporal
-
Signature
Networking capacity
Past
.1
2
3
3
5
6
Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)
100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.
Time Structures

26

A

B

C

A = Pentagon

B = Equipment, Other

C = Field
Operations

Exports

Diagram of an Pentagon
-
Industry
-
Battle Time
-
Ecology

.1

2

3

3

5

6

Organizational or Process Cycle

100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.

Battle Field Foresight

Horizon minutes


to months

Internet

Telephone

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

TS

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

P

F

Organization’s Past
-
Present
-
Future Orientation

TS + Temporal Signature

Pentagon Foresight

Horizon months to years

Time Structures

27

Opening of Policy or Opportunity Windows


Policy or opportunity windows may open at a far higher frequency
than can be easily perceived or analyzed anywhere on the
battlefield or at multiple points in the intelligence technology
complex time
-
ecology



Very hard to identify policy window opportunities for disrupting
boundaries by trickery



The following policy window examples are drawn from California
state politics

Time Structures

28

Wickedness Elements Regulating

Policy Windows


Appropriations process
: yearly cycle and variations over time



Defense acquisition process
: RFP proposal time, awarding, monitoring, reports and related paper
and procedural temporalities



Legal policy barriers
: regulatory definitions and redefinitions



Legislative barriers
: policy cycles, party cycles, legislative process



Intelligence barriers
: regulatory and policy barriers varying across levels and agencies



Organizational culture
: private sector, military, legislative, soldier, enemy, virtual, intelligence, etc



Technology Transfer
: policy definitions, development and process cycles



Deployment barriers
: manufacturing cycle, training of users, logistics and rates of movement, etc



Political pressure to increase speed of tech development and transfer



Organizational barriers
: stove
-
piping, iron
-
law of oligarchy, funding battles and organizational
battles, organizational life
-
time



Time Structures

29

Policy Entrepreneurs


A policy entrepreneur advocates for proposals or for ideas by
changing the direction and flow of politics in multiple, nested political
and administrative arenas



They join solutions to problems through policy windows when
administrations change or other large scale events occur providing
favorable political circumstances



They increase their chances of success by knowing how to open or
close policy windows in a time
-
ecology



They are knowledgeable about policy making, legislative and
administrative advocacy, procedures, and implementation



Their work is enhanced by policy networks and by working with
political groups


Time Structures

30

Timing, Cunning, and Sometimes Trickery


A political time
-
ecology is in a state of
punctuated equilibrium with different parts
changing at varying rates



A time
-
ecology may directly, or indirectly,
influence the choice of strategy used to seek a
preferred policy change




Time Structures

31

Opening a Policy Window

Issue A: low priority

Long term Legislative Organizational

cycle in phase or out of phase?

Issue Window

Open?

Media attention?

Heterochronic inputs:


campaign funds


constituency support


term limits


Party control

Historical Policy

Cycle in phase?

Current Historical

Context Supportive?

Org. Or Indiv.

Policy Entrepreneur

Available?

Member’s Career Cycle

in phase with issue and associated

with strength of support?

Legislative

Process

.1

2

3

4

5

6

Organizational or Process Cycle

100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.

Time Structures

32

Session Conditions:

-
Staff and member workload re: # bills,

and committee assignments

-

Probability of bill movement given introducing

member’s party Vs. house controlling party

-

Probability of movement given leadership and

Governor priorities and party

-

Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive, redistributive

or regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budget

priorities?

-

Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or not?

-

Legislative/executive relations?

-

Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival

(double referral)?

-

Policy cycle place (agenda
-
setting, formulation,

adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to

bill and budget deadlines?


Legislative

Process

Legislative Session Determinants

Of Opening A Policy Window

Heterochronic inputs:

-

Importance to constituency?

-

Interest group(s) pressure?

-

Media publicity?

-

Gov. agency pressure?

-

Gov. provider pressure?

-

NGO(s) pressure?

-

Federal, state, local gov.

pressure?

-

Campaign resource?

-

Other historical issues or

votes?

Enrolled

Administration

.1

2

3

4

5

6

100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.

Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)

(Issue on

Legislative

Agenda)

End

Time Structures

33

Opening an Administrative Approval and

Implementation Policy Window

Admin.

Governor’s Career Cycle favorable

and/or consistent with party and policy

agenda?

Blue pencil

probability?

Regime cycle favorable?

Bill chaptered?

Not implemented

or incompletely implemented

probability?

Agency Capacity/Survival

probability?

Administrative

heterochronic inputs:

-

Budget and personnel

requests and cycles

-

Policy cycle of priorities and

direction

-

Accountability/performance

-

Media attention

-

Client satisfaction

-

Advocacy groups strengths

and level of activity

Budget and other

Gov.. legislation

Regulatory adoption/

revision process

Provision of Services

Time technologies used to implement

(visit schedule, forms, appeals, etc..) and

associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos

100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.

.1

2

3

4

5

6

End

End

New Statute

Time Structures

34

.1

2

3

4

5

6

Organizational or Process Cycle (see page X)

100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.

Issue A: low priority
Long term Legislative Organizati onal
cycle in phase or out of phase?
Issue Window
Open?
Media attention?
Heterochronic inputs:

campaign funds

constituency support

term limi ts

Party cont rol

see notes
Historical Policy
Cycle in phase?
Current Hist orical
Context Supporti ve?
Org. Or
Indiv
.
Policy Entrepreneur
Avail able?
Draft4/28/2001
Session Cycle
Page 1
Member’s Career Cycle
in phase with i ssue and associated
with strength of support?
A
B
I. Advocacy
100+ 10-80 1-9 . 5-2 Hrs-.5 Se c.-Min.
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C Low Tech.
Suppliers

Session Conditions:
-
Staff and member workload re: # bills,
and committee assignments
-
Probability of bill movement given introducing
member

s party Vs. house controlling party
-
Probability of movement given leadership and
Governor priorities and party
-
Cost: money in bill? Is bill distributive,
redistributive
or regulatory? Relative cost? Competing budget
priorities?
-
Perception surrounding bill: fear, fame, crises or
not?
-
Legislative/executive relations?
-
Procedural sequences and likelihood of survival
(double referral)?
-
Policy cycle place (agenda
-
setting, formulation,
adoption, implementation, evaluation) relative to
bill and budget deadlines?
Heterochronic inputs:
-
Importance to constituency?
-
Interest group(s)
presure
?
-
Media publicity?
-
Gov. agency pressure?
-
Gov. provider pressure?
-
NGO(s) pressure?
-
Federal, state, local
gov
.
pressure?
-
Campaign resource?
-
Other historical issues or
votes?
Enrolled
C
100+ 10
-
80 1
-
9 . 5
-
2 Hrs
-
.5 Sec.
-
Min.
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos

t




t



A
Prime

B High
Tech.
Suppliers


t




t




t




t




t




t




t



C
Governor’s Career Cycle favorable
and/or consistent with party and policy
agenda?
Blue penci l
probability?
Regime cycle favorable?
Bil l
chapt ered
?
Not implemented
or i ncomplet ely implement ed
probability?
Agency Capacity/Survival
probability?
Administrative
het erochronic inputs:
- Budget and personnel
request s and cycles
- Policy cycle of priori ties and
direction
- Accountabil ity/performance
- Media attention
- Client satisfaction
- Advocacy groups strengths
and level of activity
Budget and other
Gov
.. legislation
Regul atory adoption/
revision process
Provision of Servi ces
Time t echnologies used to implement
(vi sit schedule, forms, appeal s, etc..) and
associated Kairos, eigenzeitung, and chronos
A Legislation
-
Admin

Business Time
-
Ecology

Regional
Economy


Legislative/

Administrative

Processes

Economic Development

Programs for Business

Time Structures

35

Chronocomplexity of Strategic Decision Making is a
Wicked Problem


Our focus is not on static institutional structures and/or how innovation is
blocked



The focus here is on hierarchic chronocomplex relationships and emergent
policy windows that if aligned, could produce actionable intelligence
consistent with battlefield timing and trickery (boundary penetrating and
changing) requirements



What heterochronic relationships open policy windows that produce
actionable intelligence and close those of the enemy? What is the role of
the policy entrepreneur at aligning these time ecologies?



Can intelligence technology Complex factors be manipulated to meet battle
field timing and trickery requirements by a policy entrepreneur?



How does chronocomplexity make these relationships and the role of the
policy entrepreneur more vulnerable to disruptive timing and trickery?


Time Structures

36

37

Strategies to Break Innovation and
Technology Transfer Barriers
Producing Actionable Intelligence

Time Structures

38

Simulations of Chronocomplex Systems



"You never change things by fighting the
existing reality. To change something,
build a new model that makes the

existing model obsolete."

--

Buckminster Fuller



Time Structures

39

Policy Working Group: Next Steps?


Flow chart the research, prototyping, approval,
procurement, and introduction into the field of
appropriate weapon as a time
-
ecology


Flow chart process of identifying soldier’s expressed
needs and how they are filled; what is delivered to
them;and what is not used as a time
-
ecology


Use dialogue mapping with key players at apparent
barriers using both flow charts to identify key policy
issues and their timing


Collect available information and use survey
research to determine soldiers needs and what they
are likely to use


40


Conduct two case studies: successful rapid
creation and deployment of a product useful
to soldiers and of one that wasn’t


Policy Group dialogue maps key wicked
factors in their time
-
ecology context,
possibly with key players


Draft strategy and options to address issues:


Creation of policy entrepreneurs


Policy options to remove specific barriers and
causes of delays including those that may require
legislation


41

Battlefield Time
-
Ecology Research Issues (1)


What to look for
: Diagram the time
-
ecology as a complex system
and from the perspective of a policy
-
entrepreneur who can navigate
it



Use Dialogue and Issue Mapping by policy entrepreneurs and
actors from the involved sectors to identify precursors of a wicked
problem and of a policy window opening or closing




Wicked problem detection

could be carried out autonomous agent
simulations using such issue and dialogue maps



One way to look
: identify and evaluate the rhythms of policy
windows, possible paths to them, their disruption, and reasons for
their opening or closing linked within their time
-
ecology



Time Structures

42

Battlefield Time
-
Ecology Research Issues (2)



Other ways
: Determine the extent to which mobility (the consumption of
distance)

be it physical or digital

is intrinsic to certain types of warfare or
policy making as human space
-
time extensibility



Identify and label varying temporal patterns caused by different
local time
-
ecology clocks

that create policy windows including their sync frequencies,
at multiple levels: neuronal, perceptual, interpretative, translations from
virtual to real to virtual; social
-
interactive, group interactive; machine
-
human; enemy
-
soldier, etc; military space
-
air
-
machine
-
individual, etc)



Derive and interpret
patterns and process

of policy making or battlefield
local space
-
time economies and tactics, trickery, etc, including introduction
of new intelligence technology relative to soldier operational effectiveness
and survival




How are
new intelligence technologies socially constructed

and by whom
and then embedded in a time
-
ecology’s distribution of authority, power, and
opportunity relative to policy windows



Time Structures